Why there is much more to the 2024 election than just Trump’s legal woes

It goes beyond Donald Trump’s dramatic court appearances.

Other significant political factors are coming together that could be just as important to November’s election as the former president tries to utilize his story of personal political persecution to get through the maze of his criminal trial and return to the White House.

Tuesday’s political spectacle, which stretched from Washington to North Carolina and California, brought attention to an already fierce campaign in front of the rematch between President Joe Biden and the presumed Republican nominee. Three incidents in those states also demonstrated that nearly any topic that finds traction with voters could be crucial in an election that could depend on several hundred votes in a few swing states.

The US Supreme Court heard a case in Washington on limiting access to mifepristone, a medication that is frequently used for abortions and also helps treat miscarriages. The hearing brought the growing fallout from the court’s decision to strike down the constitutional right to an abortion directly into the heart of yet another election. While attempting to win over North Carolina, President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris launched a fresh attack on Trump on health care. Additionally, the announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s running partner as an independent increased Democratic concerns that he may steal votes from Biden in November.

Additionally, the growing campaign is highlighting the differences between the incumbent president and his opponent.

While Biden has launched a more traditional campaign on his post-State of the Union tour of battleground states, Trump has used his presidential bid as an extension of his legal defense in several cases, spending weeks in court. He is focusing on important Democratic coalition constituencies, including as people with college degrees, Latinos, blue-collar workers, and Black voters. Additionally, he is subtly asserting that while Trump is bogged down by a maze of criminal and civil legal issues, he is improving the lives of Americans.

An avenue for the fight against abortion

“My body, my decision” Outside, pro-choice demonstrators chanted while the justices deliberated one of their most important oral arguments of the term. The hearing was the most recent in a series of court battles demonstrating that the consequences of overturning Roe v. Wade in 2022 extended beyond the issue of abortion. The justices’ decision helped pave the way for the Alabama Supreme Court ruling last month that frozen embryos are human beings – which has led to the pause of some IVF treatments in the state.

The fact that the case made it to the top bench demonstrates how a conservative shift in the legal system brought about by Trump has the power to drastically alter life in the US, even though the justices were likely to support ongoing access to mifepristone on Tuesday.

In an attempt to rekindle support among Democrats, independents, and moderate Republicans, Biden is using the Dobbs ruling and Trump’s recent proposal for a nationwide abortion ban, which energized people and halted a red Republican wave in the 2022 midterm elections. Biden issued a dire warning on Tuesday, claiming that Trump’s actions, along with the conservative majority he established on the Supreme Court, had destroyed Roe v. Wade.

Just hours after the Supreme Court session concluded, Democrats had even more reason to think that their focus on abortion rights in November will be fruitful. A Republican held the open seat until Marilyn Lands, a candidate focused on reproductive rights in an Alabama state House special election, emerged victorious. The outcome won’t change the deep red state’s political balance, but her message obviously struck a chord after the debate over frozen embryos.

The Biden campaign moved quickly to denounce Trump and claim that voters had sent the former president and “extreme MAGA Republicans a clear message: they know exactly who’s to blame for restricting their ability to decide how and when to build their families and they’re ready to fight back.” They also blamed Trump for the failure of his fertility treatments.

Is it possible for Biden to redraw a Trump state’s electoral map?

Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris made a rare joint appearance in North Carolina, a crucial state they hope to seize from Trump this fall as the president plays defense in a few other battlegrounds, including his blue wall in the Midwest, while the justices recused themselves to consider an opinion anticipated in the summer.

They want to strengthen the case that Trump and the Republicans will eliminate the advantages that Americans have benefited from under the Affordable Care Act for more than ten years if they are able to seize total control of Washington. In the state which Biden lost by just a hair in 2020 and where sixteen crucial electoral votes are located, Harris declared, “There are extremists in our country, trying to take away health coverage, or make it more expensive.”

Meanwhile, in California, there was attention focused on another danger to Biden’s chances of winning a second term. Kennedy introduced Nicole Shanahan, a Silicon Valley lawyer and businesswoman, as his running mate. Kennedy’s ability to raise money and fight for ballot access in the general election will be strengthened by this action. Numerous Democratic strategists are concerned that the environmentalist who has pushed conspiracy theories against vaccines may win over some Democratic voters who are unhappy with Biden’s administration and allow Trump to retake the White House by default.

The same cliffhanger math applies to a race including Kennedy as it does to a two-way clash between Trump and Biden. Any slight change in the electorate’s preferences could have a significant impact on the president’s future. Democratic strategists are cautioning more and more that voting for Kennedy is equivalent to voting for Trump. Robert Kennedy is merely running in order to cause spoilers. We can’t allow him to succeed in his goal of getting President Biden to vote in favor of Donald Trump, according to Pennsylvania Democratic Lt. Gov. Austin Davis, who spoke to CNN.

Trump retreating

The events of Tuesday’s campaign come after yet another day of unprecedented drama surrounding Trump’s astronomical number of court cases. On Monday, the former president won an appeals court battle that, at a minimum, delayed an attempt by New York state to begin seizing his assets to honor a civil fraud trial judgment against him worth more than $450 million. However, Trump also expressed his rage after a judge scheduled his criminal trial for April 15 in connection with a payment of hush money to an adult film actor.

Whether or not Trump prevails in the hush money case and three other trials—two concerning his meddling in the 2020 election and one concerning his hoarding of classified documents—will determine how much baggage he carries into the general election. In the hush money case, the New York judge placed a gag order on Trump on Tuesday, limiting his ability to discuss potential witnesses and other matters during the trial scheduled for next month.

This week, there were new indications that Biden is stepping up his efforts to take advantage of Trump’s issues. For instance, his team exploited Trump’s irate press conference following his court appearance on Monday to characterize him as “feeble, confused, and tired” and, as a result, unsuitable to hold the presidency again. Additionally, the president said to guests at a fundraiser in North Carolina, “I’d be happy to compare physical characteristics… granted, I don’t have his orange hair,” in an aside that revealed Biden’s team also saw an opportunity to irritate Trump with humor. Journalists present reported this information.

Two unfit candidates for the general election

In his bid for the party’s nomination, the former president appealed to the GOP base by using his indictments to gain support. However, polls also suggest that some Republicans may refuse to support him should he be found guilty. Furthermore, even after she halted her candidacy earlier this month, a sizable portion of Republicans continue to support former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley in party primary, suggesting that Trump’s support may be waning.

However, there’s also the question of whether Biden’s issues will offset Trump’s liabilities. According to polls, the majority of voters doubt that the 81-year-old is capable of serving a full second term. (Biden practiced a new joke on Tuesday in an attempt to use humor to sidestep this concern. He said to the audience, “I know I’m only 40 years old, times two, plus one.”) At 40% or below, the president’s approval rating puts him in dangerous area for a commander in chief running for reelection. Meanwhile, high grocery costs that obscure robust economic growth in other domains, such as job creation, are distorting the minds of many voters.

In addition, the president is encountering criticism for his backing of Israel from progressives and Arab American voters, which may harm his reputation in some swing states. Voters incensed about Israel’s assault on Gaza in retaliation for last fall’s terrorist strikes by Hamas have repeatedly interrupted Biden during his appearances, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, following the deaths of over 30,000 Palestinians. Tuesday was the second time it occurred in North Carolina. Additionally, the president said, “They have a point,” as the demonstrators were escorted away. We need to get a lot more care into Gaza.”

Biden’s relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has deteriorated recently as a result of the president’s staunch opposition to an upcoming Israeli attack in southern Gaza. The rift indicates that Biden needs the war to end quickly for both humanitarian and political reasons.

Democrats are placing a lot of emphasis on the abortion debate, and they plan to take advantage of developments like Tuesday’s Supreme Court arguments and Trump’s ambiguous remarks about national abortion restrictions. This is partly due to his vulnerabilities. In an attempt to deflect criticism, the former president is simultaneously taking credit for the Supreme Court majority that reversed Roe.

Planned Parenthood President Alexis McGill Johnson stated that abortion will already be a deciding factor in the 2024 election. “Since the Dobbs ruling, abortion rights have been on the ballot nationwide, in earnest,” she said to CNN’s Phil Mattingly. “Reproductive freedom has prevailed in every state where abortion ballot initiatives have been held.”

At least after appearing to fall into a Democratic trap last year when he hinted that he was exploring for alternatives to President Barack Obama’s landmark health care program, Trump also seems to be aware of his weakness on the issue of health care.

The presumed Republican nominee, Joe Biden, responded to his critics on Tuesday by claiming on his Truth Social page that “I’m not running to terminate the ACA” and lamenting that his opponent “disinformates and misinformates all the time.”

However, Trump stuck to his campaign promise to replace Obamacare with something better and less expensive; during his presidency, he made little legislative progress toward this end.