Home Politics Do the Ukrainians Change Their Attitude Toward Negotiations Without US Aid?

Do the Ukrainians Change Their Attitude Toward Negotiations Without US Aid?

A 122mm howitzer D-30 is fired in Donetsk region.

In Short

  • Russia’s overwhelming artillery production poses a significant challenge for ukraine’s defense capabilities.
  • The absence of us aid has heightened tensions and could impact negotiations between ukraine and russia.
  • Western intelligence sources provide crucial insights into the military dynamics and the implications for the region.

TFD – Dive into the geopolitical complexities of Ukraine’s conflict with Russia. How does the absence of US aid impact negotiations? Get exclusive insights from Western intelligence sources and stay informed about the evolving situation.

Russia is scheduled to generate almost three times as much artillery ammunition as the US and Europe combined, which will give them a significant advantage before their anticipated second onslaught in Ukraine later this year.

According to NATO intelligence estimates of Russian defense production given with CNN and people familiar with Western efforts to arm Ukraine, Russia is producing roughly 250,000 artillery ammunition per month, or about 3 million a year. According to a senior European intelligence officer who spoke to CNN, the US and Europe together are only able to produce roughly 1.2 million munitions per year for shipment to Kiev.

By the end of 2025, the US military aimed to produce 100,000 artillery rounds per month, which is less than half of Russia’s monthly production. However, a senior Army official told reporters last week that even that target is now unachievable due to $60 billion in funding for Ukraine being blocked in Congress.

“We are currently engaged in a production war,” a senior NATO official stated to CNN. “How each side is equipped to conduct this war will determine how things turn out in Ukraine.”

According to officials, Russia is currently shooting over 10,000 shells each day, while Ukraine is only firing 2,000. The ratio is worse in some places along the 600-mile front, according to a European intelligence official.

The deficit occurs at what could be the most dangerous time for Ukraine’s military endeavors since Russia’s initial incursion into Kyiv in February 2022. The US is no longer supplying Ukraine with weapons, and Republican resistance in Congress has all but stopped doing so.

Russia, however, is generally regarded as having the upper hand in combat and just seized the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka. Not only is ammunition a problem for Ukraine, but there is a growing scarcity of troops on the front lines.

Ukraine now has access to some extremely advanced weaponry, such as the F-16 fighter planes and the M-1 Abrams tank, thanks to the US and its allies. However, military strategists predict that the person who fires the most artillery shells will probably win or lose the war.

The NATO officer stated, “The munitions are the number one issue that we’re watching right now.” “Russia is really [gaining] a substantial production advantage and a significant tactical advantage there, so it’s those artillery shells that are the focus.”

“Full gear” Russian war machine

According to the NATO official, Russia operates its artillery factories in 12-hour rotating shifts, around the clock. The number of Russians employed in the defense industry has increased to approximately 3.5 million from between 2 and 2.5 million before to the war. Additionally, Russia imports ammunition: according to the official, North Korea sent at least 6,700 ammo containers containing millions of shells, while Iran sent at least 300,000 artillery shells last year.

According to the intelligence official, Russia has “put everything they have in the game.” “Their war machine is fully operational.”

According to a US official, President Joe Biden could roughly analogize this in the US if he used the military Production Act, which grants the president the authority to command businesses to build equipment quickly in order to support the country’s military.

A Ukrainian serviceman holds an artillery shell near the town of Kreminna, Ukraine, March 4, 2024.

According to US and Western officials, Russia’s ramp-up is still insufficient to suit its needs, and Western intelligence agencies do not anticipate Russia to make significant military gains anytime soon. According to officials, Russian manufacturers are expected to reach their peak sometime in the upcoming year, indicating that there is a limit to their production capability.

However, it still falls well short of what the US and Europe are supplying to Ukraine, particularly in the absence of further US money.

competing with the economy that Putin controls

Nations in Europe are attempting to make up for the deficit. Last month, a German defense business revealed its intentions to establish an ammunition plant in Ukraine, claiming to be able to produce hundreds of thousands of 155mm caliber bullets annually. The same company started construction on a new factory in Germany that will eventually be able to produce about 200,000 artillery shells annually.

Although Russia has been able to quickly expand its manufacturing sector, largely due to the benefit of an autocrat-run economy, US and Western officials maintain that capitalist western countries will soon catch up and develop superior machinery.

“You can probably move a little bit faster than other countries out there if you can actually control the economy,” US European Command deputy commander Lt. Gen. Steven Basham said in a recent interview with CNN. However, “the West will have more sustaining power,” he declared.

“The West is only now beginning to ramp up the construction of the infrastructure needed to add in the necessary munitions capability.”

The United States Army increased artillery shell manufacturing in Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Texas while funding was still plentiful.

Russia produces all the time. Huge, enormous, remarked a European parliamentarian. “We must not undervalue their determination to outlast us through perseverance and fortitude.”

Although neither side is likely to make significant progress very soon, according to intelligence sources, Moscow will ultimately benefit from the math, especially if more US aid does not materialize.

According to one person with knowledge of Western intelligence, “It’s not going well, but it all depends.” “All is not lost if aid recommences and arrives quickly.”

concentrating on producing weapons in Ukraine

Recently, Russia has used its long-range weapons to target Ukraine’s domestic defense production.

The NATO officer stated, “We would have discussed how they were targeting critical infrastructure if we had been talking about this last fall.” “At the moment, we see a lot of targeting directed towards the Ukrainian defense industrial base as well as some critical infrastructure targeting.”

The top NATO official claims that Russia produces 300–350 one-way attack drones based on an Iranian model supplied by Tehran, and 115–130 long-range missiles per month. The person stated that whereas Russia had thousands of long-range missiles in its arsenal prior to the war, it currently has about 700 in reserve.

In an attempt to overcome Ukrainian missile defenses, the Russians have recently hoarded those weapons for use in massive volleys. They have made up for this by using more drones—on average, four times as many per month as they did during the previous winter.

Destroyed Russian tanks near the village of Bohorodychne in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, on February 13, 2024.

Perhaps the largest obstacle facing Russia has been the production of tanks and other armored vehicles. About 125 tanks are produced each month, the great majority of which being restored older types. According to the NATO official, Russia reconditioned over 86% of its main battle tanks in 2023. And although Russia has about 5,000 tanks in storage, “probably a large percentage of those can’t be refurbished and are only good for cannibalizing parts,” the official said.

At least 2,700 tanks have been lost by Moscow, more than twice as many as were originally sent to Ukraine in February 2022, when the invasion started.

The “transformed” economy of Russia

Officials are also keeping a careful eye on Russia’s economy for clues about how Putin’s efforts to prepare his economy for war, Western sanctions, and a militarized defense industry interact to affect Russia’s capacity to fight the conflict.

According to the NATO official, Russia’s economy has completely “transformed” since the conflict, as opposed to the post-Soviet era where oil was the main industry. Nowadays, the Russian economy’s major industry is defense, which is financed primarily by oil.

That produces some long-term imbalances that Russia will probably find problematic, but for the time being, it seems to be working, according to both the NATO source and Basham, the US European Command official.

“It may not be sophisticated, but it is a robust economy in the near term — roughly the next 18 months or so,” the NATO official remarked.

The Pentagon is considering whether to use its last remaining funding source, but as CNN has previously reported, it has historically been hesitant to spend any of that money without guarantees that Congress would reimburse it. This is because taking equipment out of DoD stockpiles without a plan to replenish it could affect US military readiness.

“Do the Ukrainians change their attitude toward negotiations if there is no more US aid coming in?” stated the person with knowledge of Western intelligence.

Conclusion

As Ukraine navigates the complexities of its conflict with Russia, the absence of US aid casts a shadow over negotiations and defense efforts. The surge in Russian artillery production underscores the urgent need for international support. Let us not forget the resilience of the Ukrainian people in the face of adversity, as they strive for peace and security in their homeland.

— ENDS —

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