Russia’s Artillery Production and Ukraine’s Future: Insights from Western Intelligence

TFD – Dive into the complex dynamics of the Ukraine conflict, where Russia’s artillery production and US aid withdrawal play pivotal roles. Gain valuable insights from Western intelligence sources.

Russia is scheduled to generate almost three times as much artillery ammunition as the US and Europe combined, which will give them a significant advantage before their anticipated second onslaught in Ukraine later this year.

Russia is producing about 250,000 artillery munitions per month, or about 3 million a year, according to NATO intelligence estimates of Russian defense production shared with CNN, as well as sources familiar with Western efforts to arm Ukraine. Collectively, the US and Europe have the capacity to generate only about 1.2 million munitions annually to send to Kyiv, a senior European intelligence official told CNN.

By the end of 2025, the US military aimed to produce 100,000 artillery rounds per month, which is less than half of Russia’s monthly production. However, a senior Army official told reporters last week that even that target is now unachievable due to $60 billion in funding for Ukraine being blocked in Congress.

“What we are in now is a production war,” a senior NATO official told CNN. “How each side is equipped to conduct this war will determine how things turn out in Ukraine.”

Officials say Russia is currently firing around 10,000 shells a day, compared to just 2,000 a day from the Ukrainian side. A European intelligence official claims that at some locations along the 600-mile front, the ratio is worse.

The deficit occurs at what could be the most dangerous time for Ukraine’s military endeavors since Russia’s initial incursion into Kyiv in February 2022. The US is no longer supplying Ukraine with weapons, and Republican resistance in Congress has all but stopped doing so.

Russia, however, is generally regarded as having the upper hand in combat and just seized the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka. Not only is ammunition a problem for Ukraine, but there is a growing scarcity of troops on the front lines.

Ukraine now has access to some extremely advanced weaponry, such as the F-16 fighter planes and the M-1 Abrams tank, thanks to the US and its allies. However, military strategists predict that the person who fires the most artillery shells will probably win or lose the war.

The NATO officer stated, “The munitions are the number one issue that we’re watching right now.” “Russia is really [gaining] a substantial production advantage and a significant tactical advantage there, so it’s those artillery shells that are the focus.”

“Full gear” Russian war machine

According to the NATO official, Russia operates its artillery factories in 12-hour rotating shifts, around the clock. The number of Russians employed in the defense industry has increased to approximately 3.5 million from between 2 and 2.5 million before to the war. Russia is also importing ammunition: Iran sent at least 300,000 artillery shells last year — “probably more than that,” the official said — and North Korea provided at least 6,700 containers of ammunition carrying millions of shells.

According to the intelligence official, Russia has “put everything they have in the game.” “Their war machine is fully operational.”

According to a US official, President Joe Biden could roughly analogize this in the US if he used the military Production Act, which grants the president the authority to command businesses to build equipment quickly in order to support the country’s military.

According to US and Western officials, Russia’s ramp-up is still insufficient to suit its needs, and Western intelligence agencies do not anticipate Russia to make significant military gains anytime soon. There is also a limit to Russian production capacity, officials say: Russian factories will likely hit a peak sometime in the next year.

However, it still falls well short of what the US and Europe are supplying to Ukraine, particularly in the absence of further US money.

competing with the economy that Putin controls

European nations are trying to make up the shortfall. A German defense company announced last month that it plans to open an ammunition factory in Ukraine that it said will produce hundreds of thousands of 155mm caliber bullets each year. In Germany, the same company broke ground on a new factory expected to eventually produce around 200,000 artillery shells per year.

US and Western officials insist that although Russia has been able to jump-start its factory lines, in part because it has the advantage of being a managed economy under the control of an autocrat, capitalist western nations will eventually catch up and produce better equipment.

“You can probably move a little bit faster than other countries out there if you can actually control the economy,” US European Command deputy commander Lt. Gen. Steven Basham said in a recent interview with CNN. However, “the West will have more sustaining power,” he declared.

“The West is only now beginning to ramp up the construction of the infrastructure needed to add in the necessary munitions capability.”

The United States Army increased artillery shell manufacturing in Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Texas while funding was still plentiful.

Russia produces all the time. Huge, enormous, remarked a European parliamentarian. “We must not undervalue their determination to outlast us through perseverance and fortitude.”

Although neither side is likely to make significant progress very soon, according to intelligence sources, Moscow will ultimately benefit from the math, especially if more US aid does not materialize.

According to one person with knowledge of Western intelligence, “It’s not going well, but it all depends.” “All is not lost if aid recommences and arrives quickly.”

concentrating on producing weapons in Ukraine

Recently, Russia has used its long-range weapons to target Ukraine’s domestic defense production.

The NATO officer stated, “We would have discussed how they were targeting critical infrastructure if we had been talking about this last fall.” “At the moment, we see a lot of targeting directed towards the Ukrainian defense industrial base as well as some critical infrastructure targeting.”

The top NATO official claims that Russia produces 300–350 one-way attack drones based on an Iranian model supplied by Tehran, and 115–130 long-range missiles per month. The person stated that whereas Russia had thousands of long-range missiles in its arsenal prior to the war, it currently has about 700 in reserve.

In an attempt to overcome Ukrainian missile defenses, the Russians have recently hoarded those weapons for use in massive volleys. They have made up for this by using more drones—on average, four times as many per month as they did during the previous winter.

Perhaps the largest obstacle facing Russia has been the production of tanks and other armored vehicles. About 125 tanks are produced each month, the great majority of which being restored older types. According to the NATO official, Russia reconditioned over 86% of its main battle tanks in 2023. Moreover, the insider stated that even though Russia has 5,000 tanks in storage, “probably a large percentage of those can’t be refurbished and are only good for cannibalizing parts.”

At least 2,700 tanks have been lost by Moscow, more than twice as many as were originally sent to Ukraine in February 2022, when the invasion started.

The “transformed” economy of Russia

Officials are also keeping a careful eye on Russia’s economy for clues about how Putin’s efforts to prepare his economy for war, Western sanctions, and a militarized defense industry interact to affect Russia’s capacity to fight the conflict.

According to the NATO official, Russia’s economy has completely “transformed” since the conflict, as opposed to the post-Soviet era where oil was the main industry. Nowadays, the Russian economy’s major industry is defense, which is financed primarily by oil.

That creates some long-term imbalances that will likely be problematic for Russia, but for now, it’s working, the NATO official and Basham, the US European Command official, both said.

“It may not be sophisticated, but it is a robust economy in the near term — roughly the next 18 months or so,” the NATO official remarked.

The Pentagon is considering whether to use its last remaining funding source, but as CNN has previously reported, it has historically been hesitant to spend any of that money without guarantees that Congress would reimburse it. This is because taking equipment out of DoD stockpiles without a plan to replenish it could affect US military readiness.

“Do the Ukrainians change their attitude toward negotiations if there is no more US aid coming in?” stated the person with knowledge of Western intelligence.