US is waiting on Netanyahu’s response to Biden’s demand.

President Joe Biden risked his reputation as well as that of the United States in an attempt to influence Israel’s Gaza warfare tactics.

He now watches to see how much Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu caves in to his administration’s biggest strategic and tone shift since the war’s beginning.

The US president would have to make a crucial decision if Netanyahu refuses to take the “specific, concrete and measurable” actions that Biden asked on Thursday in order to safeguard relief workers and lessen suffering among civilians in Gaza. Is Obama willing to enable Netanyahu to continue his defiance on a matter that is putting his reelection campaign at serious electoral risk, given the outrage that young, progressive, and Arab American voters are feeling over the war?

Or will Biden take the momentous step of conditioning the terms of US support for Israel in a war that was triggered by Hamas terror attacks in Israel that killed 1,200 people?

An Israeli official told CNN that the Israeli security cabinet late Thursday approved measures including the reopening of the Erez crossing between Israel and the northern Gaza Strip for the first time since the October 7 strikes, providing an early indication that Biden’s message may be going through. The action might make it easier for humanitarian supplies to reach Gaza as a famine approaches.

But a sustained Israeli pivot will be needed in the days ahead – one that survives potential escalations in the war against Hamas – to ease criticism of Netanyahu and to mitigate Biden’s own domestic political exposure.

A high-stakes call between Biden and Netanyahu on Thursday followed the deaths of seven aid workers from World Central Kitchen in an Israeli strike in Gaza. The tragedy appeared to galvanize more outrage than the killing of what the Gaza health ministry says are more than 30,000 people in the enclave, where Hamas embeds its forces in civilian areas.

It was a significant moment because, for the first time, the US was hinting that its long-standing, unwavering support for Israel might become conditional, if Netanyahu didn’t move quickly. Reportedly, Biden also demanded a “immediate ceasefire.”

Changes in our policy will follow if we do not see the necessary changes,” stated Secretary of State Antony Blinken during the call. The administration did not specify how the US position would shift, while some Democrats are already publicly discussing putting restrictions on the weaponry that the Israel Defense Forces can use that are produced domestically. Senator Chris Coons of Delaware, a close aide to the president, is one of them. The senator’s signal on Thursday that he was open to conditioning arms sales was the latest public statement by a senior Democrat that sounded like a warning to Biden that his political position is becoming unsustainable.

The White House has consistently voiced its dissatisfaction with Israeli actions, but it has been unable or unwilling to exert any pressure on the prime minister. As a result, this latest attempt to do so breached a crucial boundary, and if the US’s renewed push is ineffective, tensions among the allies would probably worsen even worse.

An effort to reduce political tension

Biden’s need to demonstrate to sectors of his Democratic coalition that he was imposing pressure on the Israelis, in a week when a Palestinian American physician walked out of a “listening session” on the war with the president, was evident in the way the administration presented the results of the call.

While in Brussels, Blinken had a live press conference, addressing both domestic Americans and US allies who, unlike Biden, have been far more willing to criticize Israel for the way the war has been conducted. Subsequently, National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby assumed responsibility at the White House, emphasizing that the United States demanded that Israel immediately enact reforms, such as expanding humanitarian corridors into Gaza and taking steps to safeguard civilians.

It’s unusual for an administration to brief a call with a foreign leader so fulsomely and publicly. Usually, the White House issues a statement offering few useful details of a conversation. This time, however, the administration was determined to control the narrative and defined what happened before Israel offered its own version of events. Biden didn’t appear before television cameras but posted a photo on X in which he stared pensively at a telephone during the call with a pen to his lips. “Israel must implement steps to address civilian harm and the safety of workers – and work toward a ceasefire to bring hostages home,” the president wrote. This coordinated public diplomacy underlined the gravity of a US shift. But it also increased the cost

Former defense secretary, CIA director, and chief of staff for the White House Leon Panetta told CNN’s Jake Tapper on Thursday that he thought the administration could draw a line with Israel and that it was crucial that Biden push for a truce. “The battle has lasted for nearly six months, and I believe that President Biden and Netanyahu have, to some degree, been talking over one another’s worries. I think that has changed. … I hope that has changed,” he said.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent who has been vocal against Israel’s tactics in Gaza, stated that US taxpayer money shouldn’t be “complicit” in Israel’s killing of innocent people. The Vermont senator told Tapper, “The bottom line is that we are looking at one of the worst humanitarian disasters that we have seen in a very, very long time.” “To my mind, Israel should not be getting another nickel in military aid until these policies are fundamentally changed,” Sanders said. “Hamas began this war, they are a terrorist organization, but the United States is not funding Hamas, we are funding Israel … what has got to be made clear to Israel is that you can go to war against Hamas, but you cannot continue these horrific actions.”

Netanyahu’s selection

Dealing with Netanyahu has been extremely risky for US presidents because he has a history of rejecting US pressure. Netanyahu is an incredible political survival who has been in power for the majority of the last 25 years.

The prime minister, who used the call to hold a cabinet meeting and threaten Israel with self-defense against Iran, did not respond right away. Following the deaths of two senior officials of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in an attack in Damascus that the US has blamed on Israel, the Islamic Republic threatened to retaliate. The Israeli government put its forces on a state of high alert Thursday, and suspended leave for combat units. “We will know how to defend ourselves and we will act according to the simple principle of whoever harms us or plans to harm us, we will harm them,” Netanyahu said.

The administration was keen to emphasize that US support for Israel’s security was unwavering, even as the phone conversation with Biden exposed the divisions between the US and Israel. According to Kirby, “They did talk about a very real and very public threat by Iran to Israel’s security.” Blinken, meanwhile, stressed that “President Biden reaffirmed the United States’ strong support for Israel in the face of these threats and our commitment to Israel’s security.”

It is not a personal divide that has been causing tensions to rise between Biden and the Israeli prime minister. The two are seasoned politicians who have been acquainted for a long time. Instead, there is a difference between the president’s and Netanyahu’s political objectives as well as maybe US national security interests. Biden has a strong incentive for the war to end, given the political blowback he is facing from within his fragile coalition in key states that will decide the 2024 election. Many Washington observers believe that Netanyahu has an incentive to prolong the conflict, given that an election is likely when the intensity of conflict cools. At that point, the focus will also turn to accountability for the worst terror attack in modern Israeli history and a period that

A prominent aspect of Netanyahu’s tactics in the past few months has been his refusal to even ostentatiously acknowledge US demands, considering the political cost that Biden bears for his unwavering backing of Israel. That is hardly surprising, in one sense. The anguish of the October terror acts and the depravity of an adversary determined to remove Israel from the map has eclipsed other issues for a large number of Israelis. Over his career, Netanyahu has steered far to the right, running the most conservative administration in Israeli history and relying on a number of ultra-Orthodox parties to keep him in office. The Israeli prime minister is a consummate Washington player and has been engaging with Biden’s Republican foes

Nonetheless, Israel is growing more and more isolated on the global stage, and US assistance has never been more crucial. If Netanyahu openly rejects requests from a US president, he is assuming a great personal risk. The US has warned that the Israeli offensive in Rafah must not go unless civilians are protected, and this offensive could now be the tipping point that separates the two leaders.

In the event that Biden determines that his cautions are being ignored, he will need to publicly hold the Israeli prime minister accountable in order to maintain his credibility. Considering how emotionally attached he is to Israel, he will do so with heavy heart.

However, Biden is about to face a critical decision due to his political obligations and the mounting humanitarian cost of the Gaza War. Netanyahu will now choose his course of action.