Steve Kornacki’s guide to the Kentucky Derby: Biggest storylines, best bets

Fierceness enters as the favorite in the 150th running of the esteemed horse race.

TFD – Delve into the excitement of the Kentucky Derby with a detailed analysis of favorites, contenders, and betting trends, providing insights for enthusiasts and bettors alike.

The horses are entered, the post positions are drawn, and the morning line is set. The final countdown to Saturday’s 150th Kentucky Derby is truly underway, which means it’s crunch time for those — present company very much included — hoping to dazzle our friends (and maybe fatten our wallets) by picking the winner.

Whether you’re an experienced horseplayer or a casual spectator, sorting through this enormous field of 20 horses—all of which are still maturing as 3-year-olds and several of them have only had a few starts under their belts—presents an alluring task.

There are numerous methods for handicapping the Derby. Here are some statistics, patterns, and viewpoints that can assist clarify and hone your thoughts regarding this year’s Run for the Roses.

Two important notes: There are several references here to the Derby qualifying system implemented in 2013. It’s an important reference point, because it altered the basic structure of the race.

Prior to 2013, the allocation of Derby places was solely dependent on the amount of money earned in stakes races. This resulted in the inclusion of horses that weren’t ideal candidates for the Derby, such as sprinters with short distances, which affected the race’s dynamics.

Derby qualification has been determined by allocating points to the best finishers in a sequence of specially designated races since 2013. Fields that have proven successful in situations similar to the Derby have been developed by the method.

Additionally, in reference to current patterns, the phrase “crossed the wire first” appears numerous times here. This is because in the 2019 and 2021 Derbybies, the horses that crossed the finish line first (Maximum Security in 2019 and Medina Spirit in 2021) were eventually disqualified, and the official victors were the ones who finished in second place. However, using the horses who initially placed first in those Derbies is more beneficial for our purposes here.

Favorites with a purpose

It’s normal to anticipate mayhem and search for a long shot that will blow up your bank account for a tiny investment in a field as large as the Derby, which has 20 horses, easily the most that will participate in a major race in the U.S. this year. Furthermore, there have been some incredible upsets in the Derby; who among us doesn’t wish they had placed a wager on Rich Strike at 80-1 two years ago?

Rich Strikes are exciting, but they’re also uncommon. In horse racing, favorites prevail in about 35% of the races held nationwide in any given year. Additionally, the Derby’s hit rate in this event has increased since 2013 when it adopted its current qualification system:

That makes six out of the last eleven Derbies (54.5%) won by the favorite in the betting. Furthermore, even in instances where the favorite has failed, it has consistently performed well, never finishing worse than sixth at the wire. You would have made almost twice as much money, or $19.40, if you had just wagered the $2 minimum to win on every favorite since 2013.

Having said that, Fierceness, the favorite this year, has an unusual record going into the Derby. He has dominated the last three races, winning them by a total of thirty-one lengths. However, the two other races he has participated in have been complete disasters: the Champagne Stakes, when he finished seventh by a distance last autumn, and the Holy Bull Stakes, where he finished third as the 1-5 favorite against questionable opposition, past February. Fierceness is often viewed as the ultimate boom or bust horse, someone who either wins handily or loses badly.

Pace: Will things blow out again?

The two favorites in this year’s Derby have completely different racing styles, which is what makes it so exciting.

Sierra Leone is somewhat of a deep closing who likes to take his time building up to a big charge. If he can race into Saturday at a fast pace, it will be to his advantage. On the other hand, fierceness has demonstrated a desire to run at or close to the front; if he gets lured into a pace that heats up too much, it could be his downfall. In contrast, more moderate early fractions ought to place him more favorably when the race heads home.

The Derby’s recent past (since the new qualification procedure was implemented in 2013) shows how important speed can be:

Note that the 2013 and 2022 Derbies featured the fastest opening half-miles — and that each was won by a horse who was far, far back at that point. Furthermore, Mage last year, the only other recent deep closer to win, did it in the midst of fast early fractions. Meanwhile, the slower early paces all helped horses on or near the lead stay there. Overall, despite the past two years, early speed has held up fairly well in recent Derbies.

Fierceness’s primary goal on Saturday is to break cleanly and take up his favorite forward position. That in and of itself is not a given because he is breaking from the 17th post and will have to move swiftly in the direction of the inside.

However, the tempo concern becomes crucial if he does it. There will be several horses vying for the lead as well; some of them are Track Phantom, T O Password, Dornoch, and Just a Touch. Will they ignite fractions, and if so, will Fierceness be lured into an exhausting, premature duel? Or will Fierceness have the last say, sitting out at a moderate pace until he revs his engine and blows the field away? The example of Justify above is also worth recalling; he endured a lightning-fast early pace in 2018 and still managed to hold up and win anyway.

Sierra Leone is expected to have company at the rear of the group as well. Like Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom and Honor Marie are also highly regarded closers who ought to be giving it their all while running late. The pace up front can never grow hot enough for any of them.

Speed ratings: A threshold number?

It’s a hard undertaking to compare all twenty horses in the field with each other. Considering that they are all just three years old, the majority of them have not competed in many races, and they have traveled varied paths to the Derby by competing in numerous qualifying events at various tracks with various layouts and environmental factors.

The goal of speed ratings is to reduce all of that to a single, easily comparable figure. Numerous distinct formulations have emerged, each with its own exclusive reasoning. The most well-known is most likely the Beyer Speed Figure system, named for its inventor Andrew Beyer. The Daily Racing Form, which you’ll undoubtedly come across on any visit to the track, contains those numbers. The main concept is that a horse moves quicker the higher the number.

The Beyer ratings provide a possible perspective for assessing the field for this year’s Derby. Considering all of the unrestricted stakes races that are at least a mile in length that each horse has participated in, the highest Beyer figure that each has achieved prior to the Derby is as follows:

With a top of 110 on the Beyer Ratings, Fierceness dominates the rest of the field this year, leading his closest opponents by nine points.

Furthermore, the 101 high for Japan’s Forever Young is really an unofficial approximation given by a Middle Eastern race’s Beyer figure-maker. Additionally, Mystik Dan’s best score outside of that race is only 89, indicating that he may require a wet surface to succeed (that is, if it rains on Saturday, he may suddenly become a popular option). His 101 happened on a muddy track at Oaklawn Park in February.

While horses with the best Beyer ratings going into the Derby don’t usually win, six have done so since 2000: Fusaichi Pegasus (2000), Justify (2018), California Chrome (2014), Street Sense (2007), Big Brown (2008), and War Emblem (2002). And although Maximum Security (2019), the seventh, was the first to cross the wire, it was eventually ruled to have interfered. Twelve horses in all, the first to cross the wire since 2000, entered with one of the top three Beyers.

Also of note: Since 2000, all but two horses that crossed the wire first in the Derby had previously posted at least a 94 Beyer rating in a stakes race a mile or longer. The two exceptions are two of the most mystifying long-shot winners of all time: Mine That Bird (2009), who came in with a best Beyer of just 81, and Rich Strike (2022), who’d previously maxed out at 84. Neither of them ever won another race after their memorable Derby upsets. As you can see above, exactly half of this year’s field has previously run a 94 Beyer or better.

Fierceness is the favorite in this race because of his 110 Beyer and the nine-point advantage over the next best. But before anyone believes that makes him unbeatable, keep in mind that Bellamy Road, who entered with a clear Beyer edge in 2005 (being 12 points ahead of everyone else), was the only other Derby horse this century to finish lower than sixth.

“Complete fractions”

Credit for this angle goes to Jennie Rees, a decorated horse racing journalist who handles publicity for Kentucky Downs. Because the 1 ¼-mile Derby is typically the longest any of these horses have ever run, her idea is that any previous ability they’ve shown to finish powerfully provides an important clue about their fitness and endurance.

Rees suggested measuring that by observing how each horse concluded its last pre-Derby prep race, giving credit to those who completed the last quarter-mile in 13 seconds or the final three-eighths of a mile in 38 seconds or less. While those standards haven’t always been ideal, the great majority of recent Derby winners have at least one of the boxes marked.

Which competitors in this year’s field are eligible to be taken into account using the “final fractions” theory? We are very grateful to J. Keeler Johnson, a Bloodhorse contributor, for doing some heroically laborious arithmetic to come up with numbers for each horse. Subjectivity exists in this situation since precise official times from every Derby prep race aren’t accessible, and different number crunchers will provide different times.

However, Johnson provides a thorough and convincing technique, and he discovered that eight horses—Catalytic, Dornoch, Epic Ride, Grand Mo the First, Just a Touch, Stronghold, Sierra Leone, T O Password, and West Saratoga—do not meet either of the two requirements.

With the notable exceptions of Sierra Leone and Just a Touch, who placed first and second in the Blue Grass Stakes a month ago, the most of them are long shots. It is especially unexpected to see Sierra Leone’s name on the list considering his dominant finish in the stretch run of that race. Furthermore, some claim that the Keeneland course he was competing on that day was skewed in favor of horses that finished first, which makes his ability to catch up and win—regardless of the split times—quite remarkable.

With the exception of long shot Society Man, who misses on one and just qualifies for the other (a 12.95-second last quarter-mile in the Wood Memorial), every other horse in the Derby field ticks both “final fractions” boxes.

The influence of Japan

An American horse by the name of Sunday Silence rose to fame in 1989 when he won the first two jewels of the Triple Crown, the Derby and the Preakness. And yet, when he was retired from racing, Sunday Silence found himself unwanted as a stallion — until a Japanese breeder swooped in and took him to his home country. There, to an astonishing degree, Sunday Silence flourished as a sire, essentially serving as the foundation for modern Japanese racing.

Following several decades of consistent advancement, Japanese-bred horses, the majority of whom are direct offspring of Sunday Silence, are now making waves on the global scene. In the past few years, they have won two highly esteemed Breeders’ Cup races as well as the two richest races in the world, the $20 million Saudi Cup and the $12 million Dubai World Cup. A Derby breakthrough appears to be just around the corner.

Forever Young and T O Password, two horses of Japanese breeding, are competing this year. Like the four previous Japanese-bred horses to qualify for the Run for the Roses, both are descended from Sunday Silence:

Although the sample size is small and Derma Sotogake only finished sixth last year because of problems at the starting gate and traffic throughout the race, those numbers aren’t very impressive. Stated differently, he gave a better performance than what appears on paper.

The Japanese competitors this year present some special unknowns. They both had to go far beyond their comfort zones to reach Kentucky, where they will be competing for the first time on American territory. How are they going to adapt?

Also, both will need to overcome some additional past. In Forever Young’s case, it has to do with the Dubai Derby, which he won in order to earn a ticket to Louisville. The horses from that race who are headed to the Kentucky Derby had a combined record of 0-19, never placing higher than fifth. T O Password, on the other hand, has only ever started two races in his racing career. He has only competed in Japan. With so little experience, no horse in the modern era has ever won the Derby, and very few have ever attempted. You would have to travel all the way back to Leonatus in 1883 to locate a horse that could pull it off.

Given the skyrocketing trend of Japanese racing, it is worthwhile to keep a watch on both of this year’s competitors. However, Forever Young is the only one seen as a front-runner. In addition to facing international competition in Dubai, he has won all five of his races and put on spectacular displays that undoubtedly appear Derby-worthy. Thirty-five years later, Sunday Silence might become a household name again.

My choice for the Kentucky Derby

First cards dealt out on the table: In the past ten years, I have only successfully predicted one winner of the Derby, and that winner was eventually declared ineligible (but I kept the winnings). That in and of itself might be a worthwhile perspective for you to take into account, and my friends and family have done so with success in the past: Do not approach it if I am picking it.

However, I’m not going to support the favorite in this race. First of all, I detest picking favorites, especially when there are so many horses competing and so much room for confusion at a race like the Derby. The most gifted player is undoubtedly Fierceness, but in my opinion, he has been too erratic, and breaking from such an outside post leaves too much room for error.

And Sierra Leone, the other potential favorite, will face a unique challenge with his come-from-the-clouds running style. With 19 other horses on the track, he’ll have to maneuver his way through and around traffic like he has never confronted before. As with Fierceness, I won’t be at all surprised if he wins, but too much could go wrong for him in this race for me to take him at short odds.

I really enjoy looking for long shots, and I have my eye on one in particular. His running technique has worked effectively in the past; he doesn’t push the pace or stray from it to the point where he gets stuck in traffic. His most recent race, the Arkansas Derby, was his best yet, and there’s reason to think he could improve further. Additionally, he ticks both of the “final fractions” boxes. His maximum Beyer speed number is 95, which puts him on the right side of the line, where nearly all Derby winners have been during the past century.

I admit that I’m sentimental as well. Even though his 88-year-old trainer has already won four Derbys, he still goes to the barn early every morning in the hopes of winning more. I’ll admit my heart is probably talking my head into this one, but the odds will be big and the Derby only comes around once a year, so why not? D. Wayne Lukas and Just Steel are my choices.