Discover how the National Hurricane Center is revamping its cone graphic to improve understanding of storm hazards, addressing long-standing misconceptions.
This summer, the National Hurricane Center will launch an experimental new visual online, a response to years of concerns about how people interpret its prediction cone graphic.
According to Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the center, the organization is experimenting with modifications to its most well-known image, known as the “cone of uncertainty,” in an effort to better convey the hazards that millions of people face from tropical storms and hurricanes that make landfall.
According to Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the center, the organization is experimenting with modifications to its most well-known image, known as the “cone of uncertainty,” in an effort to better convey the hazards that millions of people face from tropical storms and hurricanes that make landfall.
Forecasters have spent years trying to figure out how to accurately clarify potentially dangerous misconceptions about the cone graphic and show the extent of the area covered by the multiple risks posed by landfalling storms.Rhome told USA TODAY on Monday that they have been collaborating with social scientists to devise strategies for educating the public about the fact that dangers don’t just exist inside the cone.
The same forecast cone will be used in the new experimental design, which will be released later this year, but inland portions will be colored to represent the entire area under tropical storm and hurricane warnings.
What does the forecast cone mean?
What does the forecast cone mean?
With points every 12 hours for the first three days of the forecast and every 24 hours for days four and five, it depicts the likely path of a storm’s center over the course of the next five days.
With points every 12 hours for the first three days of the forecast and every 24 hours for days four and five, it depicts the likely path of a storm’s center over the course of the next five days.
The cone has been gradually getting smaller as the center’s forecasting ability has gotten better, resulting in fewer track and intensity errors. The cone is not meant to represent the extent of the storm or the region that could be subjected to strong winds, heavy rain, or a catastrophic storm surge.
Why alter the cone?
Even though there is a black label at the top stating that the picture does not depict the storm’s size or the extent of its damage, people have been misinterpreting it for years.
Many remedies have been put out in response to the graphic’s misconceptions, which have been “hotly debated,” according to Rhome.
When strong Hurricane Ian approached Florida in September 2022, the discussion reached a fever pitch, and both governmental officials and private folks misread the depiction.Experts stated at the time that people and officials in Lee County, Southwest Florida, overlooked the fact that barrier islands were always in or near the border of the forecast cone, which caused them to put off important choices.
The misconceptions he observed appalled Craig Fugate, a former head of the Federal disaster Management Agency and Florida’s disaster management chief.Fugate claimed that although the hurricane center and NOAA had accurately conveyed the uncertainty, individuals were not understanding it. Subsequently, he was among those who proposed shifting the focus from tracking to impacts.
According to Fugate, the center’s most recent endeavor is “a good move” to depict more possible storm effects, as USA TODAY reported.
However, as track predictions became more accurate over time, the cone representing the possible path shrank in size. “Outside the cone with greater and greater frequency,” Rhome warned, the dangers leaking farther and farther. That led to even more worries.
However, as track predictions became more accurate over time, the cone representing the possible path shrank in size. “Outside the cone with greater and greater frequency,” Rhome warned, the dangers leaking farther and farther. That led to even more worries.
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No. Starting around August 15, the experimental visual will be displayed next to it, Rhome said, when the center receives input from emergency managers and meteorologists and resolves any issues.
No. Starting around August 15, the experimental visual will be displayed next to it, Rhome said, when the center receives input from emergency managers and meteorologists and resolves any issues.
According to him, a mock-up of the new image illustrates just how much color—which stands for the wind warning—is outside the cone and far from the center of circulation. This “helps to convey the totality of wind risk, which is exceedingly important because people were just so fixated on, not only where the center of the track might go, but whether they were in or out of these edges.”
Depending on whether your neighborhood is inside or outside the cone, the impact is “insignificant,” according to Rhome. The alerts or warnings are what should compel people to act and advise them on what to do.
Why not make the map include every possible risk?
There will be lingering concerns because rainfall and storm surge—the two major killers—have not yet been included in the new picture.
According to Rhome, a graphic’s propensity to overcrowd the message increases with the amount of information provided.
While several meteorologists and meteorological professionals told USA TODAY that they enjoy seeing dangers added to the map, they also acknowledged that the center must proceed cautiously to avoid too confusing the viewer by presenting hazards in an overly dramatic way.
While several meteorologists and meteorological professionals told USA TODAY that they enjoy seeing dangers added to the map, they also acknowledged that the center must proceed cautiously to avoid too confusing the viewer by presenting hazards in an overly dramatic way.
Since hurricane threats are present far inland, it’s “a great idea to show the inland watches and warnings” on the image, according to Jeff Masters, a writer with Yale Climate Connections, a former hurricane hunter meteorologist, and the founder of Weather Underground. It’d be “great if the storm surge watches and warnings could also be included, but that would risk information overload.”
TV meteorologist Alan Sealls, who is retired, described the experimental graphic as “a good attempt.”According to Sealls, each storm combines “wind, flooding, rain, storm surge, and tornadoes in a multitude of combinations,” thus any attempt to graphically represent all the risks in a tropical cyclone is bound to be complex.
When does the Atlantic hurricane season begin?
In the Atlantic, hurricane season begins on June 1; in the Pacific, it begins on May 15.
- Which ones will these be for the storm season of 2024?
- Alberto
- Beryl
- Chris
- Debby
- Ernesto
- Francine
- Gordon
- Helene
- Joyce
- Kirk
- Kirk
- Milton
- Milton
- Oscar
- Oscar
- Rafael
- Rafael
- Sara
- Tony
- Valerie
William
Conclusion
The initiative by the National Hurricane Center to modernize its cone graphic underscores the importance of clear communication in mitigating the risks associated with tropical storms and hurricanes. By addressing misconceptions and providing a more holistic view of storm hazards, the updated graphic aims to enhance public safety and preparedness during hurricane season.
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