Analysis: Nikki Haley Fails to Sway South Carolina GOP Voters, Trump Sweeps Primaries

TFD – Explore the outcome of the South Carolina Republican primary analysis, revealing the dynamics between Nikki Haley and Donald Trump. Gain insights from exit polls and understand the implications for the upcoming elections.

The results of CNN’s exit poll for South Carolina’s Republican presidential primary on Saturday show that former governor Nikki Haley’s attempt to win over the conservative, MAGA-friendly electorate in her home state—which included arguments about her relative fitness for the presidency and her electability in November—was largely unsuccessful. According to CNN’s prediction, former president Donald Trump will win the primary and complete his sweep of this year’s elections.

More than 75% of voters claimed to have made their decision before the year had started, and the vast majority of those early adopters supported Trump. In contrast, a slightly smaller percentage of voters who were still indecisive in January or even more recently broke for Haley.

Compared to the New Hampshire primary, the South Carolina Republican primary electorate was substantially closer to that of the Iowa caucuses in January. Approximately 40% of South Carolina primary voters identified as members of the MAGA movement. Almost one-third of primary voters in New Hampshire agreed that Joe Biden was the real winner of the 2020 presidential contest; this percentage is lower than in Iowa, when just over one-third agreed. Furthermore, just roughly 36% of South Carolina primary voters stated that if Trump were found guilty of a crime, they would not regard him as unsuitable to be president.

Approximately 70% of South Carolina primary voters identified as Republicans, and about 80% of them self-identified as conservatives, with roughly 40% identifying as extremely conservative. Haley prevailed over the small group of moderate voters, while Trump received the backing of more over 80% of voters who identified as very conservative and a smaller majority of those who identified as moderately conservative. There was also a notable educational gap, which echoes a trend that has been evident throughout the campaign: three-quarters of voters without a college degree, or the majority of South Carolina’s GOP electorate, supported Trump, while voters with college degrees were split almost evenly between Trump and Haley.

Approximately 60% of the state’s primary voters are White evangelical or born-again Christians, making up a larger portion of the electorate than in either New Hampshire or Iowa. Among White evangelicals, Trump received almost 75% of the vote, while the state’s other voters were more evenly divided between Haley and Trump. This is a change from the South Carolina Republican primary of 2016, where Trump’s support among White evangelicals was just marginally higher than that of the general electorate.

Exit polls are a useful technique for determining the political beliefs and demographics of primary voters. Exit polls, like all surveys, are approximations rather than exact representations of the electorate. This is especially true for the initial set of exit poll findings, which have not yet been adjusted for weight to correspond with the primary results. However, the outcomes offer an insight into the kinds of voters participating and the perspectives they have on the political landscape.

Regardless of the nominee, the majority of South Carolina GOP primary voters are optimistic about their prospects in November. Approximately 80% of respondents stated that if Trump were the nominee, he would be at least somewhat likely to defeat Biden in November; the majority, however, believed that Haley, the Republican nominee, would be likely to win. However, over 6 out of 10 respondents believed that Trump would easily defeat Biden in November, while only roughly 25% believed that Haley would prevail.

A third of primary voters said that both Trump and Haley are mentally and physically fit to serve as president, compared to approximately 35% who believed that only Trump is and nearly 3 in 10 who believed that only Haley is. In terms of border security and the economy, over two thirds of voters said they trusted Trump more than Haley. Of course, those figures also show Trump’s dominance in the state and Haley’s struggles to mount a credible challenge to him, even if they also partly reflect voters’ propensity to support their preferred candidate regardless of the question posed.

The divergent pleas made by Trump and Haley to their followers are further highlighted by the exit poll. In South Carolina, about half of Trump supporters stated that their top priorities when choosing a candidate were fighting for individuals similar to them and roughly one-third said they were seeking for someone who shared their values. Fewer voters placed more importance on a candidate’s demeanor or likelihood of winning against Biden. Haley voters, on the other hand, were more likely to favor temperament than similar ideals.

Almost all of Trump’s supporters claimed that they voted primarily for him rather than against him. A sizable minority of voters—roughly 4 in 10—said their vote was primarily an expression of opposition to Trump, despite the fact that the majority of Haley supporters also stated that their support for her was their primary motivation. Only over 5% of primary voters in South Carolina identified as Democrats, despite the fact that registered voters who did not participate in the Democratic primary were still able to vote in the Republican campaign.

Voters in the state who support Trump and Haley also hold quite divergent opinions about national politics. About 8 out of 10 Trump voters believe that the majority of undocumented immigrants in the US should be deported, roughly twice the number of Haley voters who hold that opinion. Trump voters are about 30 percentage points more likely than Haley voters to name immigration as their top voting priority. About two-thirds of Trump supporters in South Carolina stated they would be in favor of outlawing most or all abortions nationally, whereas nearly the same proportion of Haley supporters stated they would be against it.

Overall, about 40% of GOP primary voters in South Carolina stated that immigration was their top voting priority, followed by the economy, foreign policy, and abortion, with less people mentioning these topics. Almost 90% of respondents expressed dissatisfaction with the direction the nation is taking, and over 40% expressed anger at the current state of affairs. Only about 1 in 6 said the nation’s economy was in good condition. But closer to home, about 8 in 10 described their own financial situation in neutral or positive terms, with most – about 60% – saying their own finances are holding steady.

Edison Research conducted the Republican presidential primary exit survey in South Carolina on behalf of the National Election Pool. It comprises 2,126 interviews conducted on Election Day with Republican primary voters at 40 distinct polling locations. The margin of error for the entire sample’s results is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points, with larger variations for subgroups.

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