India prolongs the ban on Pakistani planes and aircraft by one month, marking the sixth month of the bilateral airspace shutdown.

According to a new notice to airmen (NOTAM) released by India‘s aviation authorities on Monday, the country has reciprocated by extending the Ban on Pakistani airlines and aircraft entering Indian airspace by one month, till the early hours of October 24. The fresh notification follows Pakistan‘s NOTAM’s extension of its airspace closure for Indian airlines and aircraft for the same duration, which was issued a few days ago. With these extensions, the six-month mark for the neighbors’ airspace restrictions on one another’s aircraft is approaching.

Pakistan started an airspace closure on April 24 in response to the Pahalgam terror assault in April, which worsened tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad. Initially for one month, this ban prohibited Indian aircraft and airlines from overflying Pakistani airspace. India responded on April 30, closing its airspace to Pakistani aircraft and airlines. Since then, both nations have extended these closures by issuing NOTAMs on a monthly basis. Notably, while India and Pakistan have banned each other’s airlines and aircraft, their respective airspaces remain open for overflying by airlines and aircraft from other countries.

Pakistan issued its latest NOTAM extending the airspace closure two days back–a few days before the September 24 expiration of the earlier closure notice. After this extension by Pakistan, India was also likely to extend the closure of its airspace beyond September 24, when the earlier Indian NOTAM was also set to expire.

With the exception of the airspace closure’s effective period, India’s latest NOTAM is comparable to earlier ones. Until 5:29 India time on October 24, India would prevent Pakistani planes and aircraft, including military aircraft, from using its airspace. The latest NOTAM from Pakistan on airspace closure has the same expiration date and time.

Approximately 800 Indian airline flights per week have been impacted by the closure of Pakistan’s airspace. Usually departing from North India, these planes are compelled to take lengthier routes to reach places like West Asia, the Caucasus, Europe, the UK, and eastern North America. This leads to several operational challenges like increased flight durations with journeys extended by anywhere from 15 minutes to several hours depending on the destination, in addition to higher fuel consumption, and increased complexity in crew and flight scheduling. Ultimately, these factors contribute to a rise in operational costs for the airlines.

In contrast, the impact of India’s airspace closure has been rather insignificant on Pakistan. This is largely because Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), the country’s main carrier, has a limited international presence and is currently struggling, unlike India’s rapidly expanding aviation sector. According to data from aviation analytics company Cirium, only about six PIA flights per week—those traveling between Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia) and Lahore or Islamabad—routinely flew over India.

The scenario is very different for Indian carriers. Numerous international flights to nations west of India are operated by all of the main Indian carriers, many of which have previously used Pakistani airspace. Air India offers flights to locations in North America, Europe, the UK, and West Asia. IndiGo flies to West Asia, Turkey, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. The airline was forced to suspend flights from Delhi to the Central Asian cities of Almaty and Tashkent because these routes are now beyond the operational range of its narrow-body aircraft fleet. Air India Express, Akasa Air, and SpiceJet also operate international flights primarily to West Asia.

Nearly 400 weekly international departures from North Indian airports are currently affected, according to Cirium data. Traditionally, Pakistan was crossed by these westbound flights from Delhi, Amritsar, Jaipur, and Lucknow. Given that each of these flights has return legs, the weekly total of impacted flights comes to about 800.

There are significant financial ramifications for Indian Airlines. A total of around Rs 700 crore was lost by Indian carriers when Pakistan restricted its airspace for more than four months in 2019. The main causes of these charges were higher fuel costs and operational challenges brought on by the longer, required routes. Since Air India was the only Indian airline offering ultra-long-haul flights to North America at the time and operated more foreign flights heading west, it was the most badly hit.

The government was notified by Air India, which is now a part of the Tata group, that the continuous restriction of Pakistani airspace is expected to cost the airline about $600 million annually. In recent years, other Indian airlines, particularly IndiGo, have also expanded their international networks, utilising their existing fleets of narrow-body jets to serve various destinations. Interestingly, the only Indian airline offering service to Turkey, the Caucasus, and Central Asia is IndiGo.