Another Trump self-goal is the bear embrace between Russia and India

Similar to how US President Donald Trump’s 40% tariff on transshipped goods and sweeping levies across Southeast Asia ultimately made China more affordable, making Beijing the unexpected victor, his tariff volley against India is now, perhaps unintentionally, causing Russia and India to become closer.

In geopolitics, like with other significant actions, timing is crucial.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit India later this year to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, according to Indian National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval, who is currently in Moscow, just as Trump slapped a series of tariffs on India.

Doval met Putin and had discussions at the Kremlin a few hours later. The commitment to a “strategic partnership” was emphasized by both countries the day after Trump declared increased tariffs on imports from India.

The dates are being finalized at this time.

NSA Doval said New Delhi was “excited and delighted” about the impending engagement while confirming that the visit was on schedule after discussions with Sergei Shoigu, the secretary of the Russian Security Council. He emphasized the importance of the next conference and referred to previous India-Russia summits as “watershed moments” in bilateral ties.

Trump penalized and levied tariffs on India for its energy and defense connections with Russia. Even “dead economies” were mentioned by him.

Putin’s trip to India was announced just days after it was discovered that Prime Minister Modi would probably travel to China in August to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in Tianjin. It would be his first trip to China in seven years, if confirmed.

Trump led the US astray, but Russia is a trustworthy ally.

India has made consistent efforts to improve ties with the United States over the last few decades. Even with America’s closest friends, the strategic alliance is currently under severe strain, particularly during Donald Trump’s administration, when he adopted an unpredictable and undiplomatic foreign policy approach.

From enforcing harsh tariffs on Indian goods to actively and militarily interacting with Pakistan, India’s bitter enemy. The Trump administration has put bilateral ties to the test on numerous occasions.

On the other hand, Russia has remained a dependable and steady partner, much like India has been for all of its partners.

Although Moscow has not publicly criticized New Delhi’s international or domestic policy, it has continued to provide India with oil and weapons. Despite Trump’s erratic and harsh comments, Russia has remained crucial to India’s strategic needs even as the country has attempted to diversify its energy and defense imports in recent years.

CNN reports that 36% of India’s oil imports are still Russian crude.

India initially turned to Russia for defense equipment because of the American arms embargo in the middle of the 1960s. Following India’s 1974 nuclear test, things remained the same.

In fact, India’s ties with the US were never very warm due to the suspicion harboured by those in power in Washington DC. But since President Bill Clinton’s 2000 trip to India, things have altered. It was the time of the strategic partnership. Up to the arrival of Trump 2.0 in the 2010s, the relationships grew closer.

QUAD MEMBERSHIP IN INDIA SEEN AS JOINING US FORCES

Many saw India’s participation in the Quad—which also included the US, Japan, and Australia—as an effort to counterbalance China’s increasingly assertive activities in the Indo-Pacific. But India’s long-standing relations with Moscow were never jeopardized in the course of the global engagement. Trump’s mercantilist trade tactics seem to have backfired, especially his disdain for the subtleties of geopolitics. His vigorous efforts to reduce the $45.8 billion US trade gap with India by 2024 have not done much to improve relations in New Delhi.

Instead, it appears that the pressure campaign—which included tariffs—only strengthened New Delhi’s determination to support its “all-weather friend” by pressuring India to cut back on its imports of Russian oil. On the other hand, Russia has publicly supported India’s freedom to seek its own trade connections.

Russia attacked Trump on Wednesday for “illegally” forcing nations to sever commerce with Moscow. Trump’s declaration of more tariffs against India preceded this. “We believe that sovereign countries should have and do have the right to choose their own trading partners,” Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Kremlin claimed.

Ironically, Trump’s actions might have ended up separating a vital ally from the US rather of bringing about isolation from Russia. Trump’s tariff-first policy has the potential to drastically alter the strategic balance in South Asia and lessen a deeper US influence in a region it has long coveted, especially as India strengthens its connections with Moscow and thaws relations with Beijing.