Are the Houthis About to Shut the World’s Last Oil Exit? Inside the Bab al-Mandab Crisis

The Global energy system is facing one of its most fragile moments in recent history. One month into the escalating conflict involving the United States and Iran, Yemen’s Houthi movement has entered the battlefield in a way that could reshape global trade flows. The group has fired multiple missile barrages toward Israel, reportedly struck an oil tanker linked to QatarEnergy, and issued warnings that directly threaten one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints – the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

This narrow waterway, located between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. It serves as a vital corridor for oil shipments, global trade, and supply chains linking Asia, Europe, and beyond. With the Strait of Hormuz already disrupted amid rising tensions, the Bab al-Mandab has effectively become the world’s last functioning oil exit. Now, it is under threat.

The situation raises urgent questions: Who are the Houthis? Why are they escalating now? And how close is the world to a full-scale energy disruption? The answers lie in a mix of Geopolitics, geography, and the increasingly interconnected nature of modern conflict.

Who Are the Houthis and Why Do They Matter?

The Houthis, formally known as Ansar Allah, are a political and armed movement originating from Yemen’s Zaidi Shia community. Over the past decade, they have transformed from a regional insurgent group into a significant military force with advanced capabilities, including ballistic missiles, drones, and anti-ship weaponry.

Since taking control of Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, and much of its western coastline, the Houthis have gained a strategic foothold overlooking the Red Sea. Their position allows them to influence – and potentially disrupt – maritime traffic passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

They are also widely considered part of Iran’s broader “Axis of Resistance,” a network of allied groups across the Middle East. While the exact nature of coordination varies, the alignment becomes more visible during periods of heightened conflict.

“When regional conflicts escalate, non-state actors like the Houthis act as force multipliers, extending the battlefield beyond traditional borders.”

This dynamic is now playing out in real time.

The Bab al-Mandab Strait: Why This Waterway Matters

The Bab al-Mandab Strait may not be as widely known as the Strait of Hormuz, but its importance is undeniable. Roughly 10 to 12 percent of global seaborne trade passes through this narrow channel, including oil, liquefied natural gas, and essential goods.

In recent months, its significance has grown even further. With disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, energy exporters – particularly in the Gulf – have increasingly relied on alternative routes. Saudi Arabia, for instance, has redirected some of its oil exports through pipelines leading to Red Sea ports, effectively shifting traffic toward Bab al-Mandab.

This shift has turned the strait into a critical fallback route – a kind of emergency valve for global energy markets. If that valve shuts, the consequences could ripple across continents.

A Pattern of Escalation, Not an Isolated Event

The latest developments are not occurring in isolation. Between late 2023 and early 2025, the Houthis carried out over 100 attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. These operations were often framed as acts of solidarity with Palestinians during the Gaza conflict.

What is different now is the scale and coordination. Recent actions suggest a broader alignment with regional actors and a willingness to expand the scope of confrontation.

The reported strike on a QatarEnergy-linked tanker and coordinated missile launches signal a shift from symbolic disruption to strategic targeting.

“You don’t need to close the strait entirely. A few targeted attacks can make commercial shipping unviable.”

This observation, echoed by multiple analysts, highlights a crucial point: disruption does not require total shutdown. Even limited threats can drive up insurance costs, reroute shipping, and create bottlenecks.

Economic Shockwaves: Oil Prices and Global Impact

Energy markets are already reacting. Brent crude prices have surged significantly since the conflict intensified, reflecting both supply concerns and geopolitical risk premiums.

Analysts warn that if the Bab al-Mandab Strait becomes inaccessible, oil prices could rise sharply, potentially breaching levels that would strain economies worldwide.

Asia is particularly vulnerable. The region depends heavily on Middle Eastern energy imports, with several countries sourcing a majority of their oil from the region. Early signs of stress are already visible:

• Governments are introducing emergency measures to manage energy consumption
• Consumers are facing rising fuel costs
• Industries dependent on stable energy supply are under pressure

Even countries geographically distant from the conflict are not insulated. In a globalized economy, disruptions in one region quickly cascade into others.

Geopolitical Fallout and Strained Alliances

The broader geopolitical landscape is also shifting. The conflict has exposed divisions among traditional allies and raised questions about long-term strategy.

Some countries have expressed reluctance to become directly involved, emphasizing the risks of escalation. Others have taken steps to distance themselves from military operations, reflecting growing unease.

This lack of consensus complicates efforts to manage the crisis. Without coordinated action, the risk of miscalculation increases – and with it, the potential for further escalation.

Military Calculations and Strategic Risks

On the military front, the situation is becoming increasingly complex. Reports indicate significant resource commitments, including extensive missile deployments and logistical strain.

There is also growing discussion around potential new fronts, including strategic locations tied to energy infrastructure. Any expansion of operations could further destabilize the region.

At the same time, the Houthis’ capabilities should not be underestimated. Their experience in asymmetric warfare, combined with evolving technology, allows them to challenge more conventional forces in unconventional ways.

The Logic Behind the Strategy

From a strategic perspective, targeting energy routes is a calculated move. It shifts the impact of conflict from the battlefield to the Global Economy.

By threatening key chokepoints, actors can exert pressure not just on their immediate adversaries, but on a wide range of countries dependent on stable trade flows.

This approach creates a form of indirect leverage – one that is difficult to counter without escalating the conflict further.

In simpler terms, it is not just about winning battles. It is about influencing outcomes on a much larger scale.

Insight: Why This Crisis Feels Different

What sets this moment apart is the convergence of multiple risk factors:

• Two major energy chokepoints under threat
• Increased coordination among regional actors
• Limited global consensus on how to respond
• High dependence on affected routes

This combination creates a scenario where even small developments can have outsized consequences.

There is also a psychological dimension. Markets react not only to actual disruptions but to perceived risks. The mere possibility of closure can trigger price spikes and supply chain adjustments.

Analysis: How Close Are We to a Shutdown?

A complete closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait remains unlikely in the immediate term, primarily because of the international stakes involved. However, partial disruption is a much more realistic scenario – and one that could be equally damaging.

Shipping companies operate on risk calculations. If the perceived danger crosses a certain threshold, they may choose to reroute vessels, even if the strait remains technically open.

This is where the real vulnerability lies. The system does not need to break entirely to stop functioning effectively.

“Global trade depends on predictability. Remove that, and the system slows down – or stops.”

Context: A War That Expanded Beyond Its Origins

The current situation illustrates how modern conflicts rarely remain confined to their initial triggers. What begins as a localized dispute can quickly evolve into a multi-layered confrontation involving state and non-state actors across regions.

The expansion of this conflict into maritime domains highlights the interconnected nature of security and economics in the 21st century.

It also underscores a broader reality: in today’s world, geography is destiny. Control over key routes can shape global outcomes.

Conclusion: A Fragile Balance

The Bab al-Mandab Strait has become more than just a passage for ships. It is now a focal point in a larger struggle that blends military strategy, economic pressure, and geopolitical signaling.

Whether the Houthis will follow through on their threats remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the risk is real – and the stakes are high.

The world is watching closely, not just because of the immediate implications, but because of what this moment represents: a reminder of how quickly stability can give way to uncertainty.

And in a global system built on movement – of goods, energy, and people – even the hint of a blockade can send shockwaves far beyond the waters where it begins.