Declassified Transcripts Show Bush Privately Warned Putin That China Was the Biggest Long-Term Threat

Recently released US transcripts reveal that concerns over china’s rise featured prominently in private discussions between George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin—often more openly than in their public statements. In multiple conversations, Bush warned that Beijing represented the greatest long-term strategic issue facing both the United States and Russia, even as Moscow remained focused on Western military pressure.

The records, made public by the national security Archive following a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit, include phone calls and in-person meetings held between 2001 and 2008. Despite ongoing disagreements over NATO expansion, missile defense, and European security, China emerged repeatedly as a key topic in their exchanges.

The issue surfaced early in the relationship. During their first face-to-face meeting on June 16, 2001, at Brdo Castle in Slovenia, Bush sought to reset post–Cold War relations with Russia. According to the transcripts, he stressed that Russia was “part of the West and not an enemy,” while simultaneously warning that China’s future trajectory would shape global politics for decades to come.

Bush returned to the subject several times over the following years. In a particularly direct exchange during a September 16, 2005, meeting in the Oval Office, Bush told Putin plainly: “China is the biggest long-term problem for both of us.”

Putin, however, appeared unconvinced. He reportedly responded, “More for you,” suggesting that China posed a greater threat to the United States than to Russia. Bush countered by acknowledging geography—“They’re not on our border”—but maintained that Beijing’s long-term ambitions and growing power would eventually affect both nations.

The transcripts highlight a clear divergence in strategic priorities. While Bush framed China as a systemic, long-term challenge to the international order, Putin consistently redirected the discussion toward what he viewed as more immediate dangers: NATO’s eastward expansion and US missile defense deployments in Europe.

China resurfaced once again at their final in-person meeting on April 6, 2008, held at the Bocharov Ruchei presidential residence in Sochi. Bush urged Putin to think in long-term strategic terms and warned against underestimating Beijing’s intentions. Putin acknowledged China’s growing influence but insisted that Western military infrastructure near Russia’s borders remained the more urgent threat.

These declassified records offer rare insight into how Washington and Moscow assessed China well before it became the dominant global power it is today. They also help explain why Russia later moved closer to Beijing—not out of ideological alignment, but as a strategic response to sustained pressure from the West.

According to the National Security Archive, the transcripts provide an unusually candid window into early 21st-century power calculations. They capture a moment when China was already recognized as a looming force on the world stage, even though the United States and Russia fundamentally disagreed on how seriously—and how urgently—it should be confronted.