Putin’s victories force Trump to make difficult decisions

Alaska was a dream come true for Russian President Vladimir putin. According to his own pre-summit metrics, President Donald Trump received very little.

The current question is if Trump made any little progress or sowed the seeds for Ukraine’s future security in the case of a peace agreement with Russia that was not immediately apparent during Friday’s conference.

He is also left with some intense strategic queries.

All indications point to a significant victory for the Russian despot, even if Trump claimed to have achieved “a lot of progress” and that the summit was a “10 out of 10.”

Trump’s lavish stage production of Putin’s arrival Friday, with near-simultaneous exits from presidential jets and red-carpet strolls, provided some image rehabilitation for a leader who is a pariah in the rest of the West and who is accused of war crimes in Ukraine.

By embracing the Russian stance that peace efforts should focus on a final peace agreement, which is expected to take months or years to achieve, rather than a ceasefire to stop the Russian offensive right now, Trump had also made a significant concession to his guest by the end of their conversation. That only allows Putin more time to stifle Ukraine, as CNN’s Nick Paton Walsh noted.

Most significantly, Trump has, for the time being at least, retracted his threats to broaden secondary penalties on countries who purchase Russian oil and therefore support its war, as well as to impose harsh new sanctions on Russia. Frustrated with Putin’s intransigence and growing suspicion that the Russian leader was “tapping” him along, he had threatened such actions with a deadline that ended last week.

Putin might have arrived in Alaska thanks to this leverage. Trump, however, appears to have loosened it for little reason. In an interview with Fox News following the summit, Trump stated, “I think I don’t have to think about that anymore because of what happened today.”

Following the summit, Trump informed European leaders that Putin had urged Ukraine to cede the approximately one-third of the Donbas that Russia does not now control, which includes the eastern areas of Luhansk and Donetsk. According to European authorities quoted by CNN’s Kevin Liptak, he would offer to freeze the front lines in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia areas in exchange. Ukraine would be forced into a painful situation as a result. Some analysts fear such a deal would allow Moscow’s forces a platform to launch a future attack.

European leaders also said Trump voiced openness to providing US security guarantees for Ukraine once the war ends. The president has not yet pledged US assistance for any Western-led peace operation in the nation, so this might be important.

However, he made no mention of the type of support he would be prepared to offer.

CNN’s Kit Maher reported Saturday that multiple European leaders had been invited to a meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House on Monday. It was unclear which of them will attend, but it raises the possibility of a new widening of Trump’s peacemaking effort to include US allies. But the Kyiv government will also be on alert for any attempt to pressure it to make concessions to plans that Trump agreed with Putin.

Conflicting displays of force

In a dramatic display of US superpower signaling, a B-2 stealth bomber and F-22 fighters roared overhead as Friday’s conference got underway.

However, Putin outdid that symbolism by saying, “Good afternoon, dear neighbor,” as he used the Alaskan setting of the summit to suggest that the two nations had direct and significant interests in common that shouldn’t be jeopardized by a far-off European conflict.

There was at least some comfort that Trump didn’t sell Kyiv out for Ukrainians and their European allies, who were excluded from the meeting and whom Trump briefed afterwards. The failure of Alaska to produce a land swap plan between the US and Russia is a victory for Europe’s emergency pre-summit diplomacy.

However, Trump made a suggestion that when they meet at the White House on Monday, he will put a lot of pressure on the head of Ukraine. After declining to respond to questions from Putin during what was supposed to be a joint press conference, Trump told Fox News in the cordial post-summit interview that it was “now up to President Zelensky to get it done.”

Trump’s future options

Before the summit, Trump said to Fox News, “I won’t be happy if I walk away without some form of a ceasefire,” destroying meticulous efforts by his aides to deflate expectations.

The main thing is not getting there.

In order to continue fighting, including its more successful summer offensive, while it engages in lengthy discussions, Russia is willing to commit to a comprehensive peace process. However, while a generation bleeds out on battlefields reminiscent of World War I, Ukrainians are in dire need of relief after years of Russian drone and missile attacks on people. Without a ceasefire, peace negotiations will be vulnerable to coercion from the US or Russia.

Even though Trump’s repeated public calls for a Nobel Peace Prize raise doubts about his true intentions, his fervor to promote peace in Ukraine is admirable. The fact that the US and Russia, the two nations with the largest nuclear arsenals, are once again speaking is another benefit of the summit.

However, the fundamental idea behind Trump’s peacemaking is that wars may be ended by the power of his personality and his purportedly exceptional position as the world’s best negotiator. After his lengthy flight home from Alaska, that myth appears to be in terrible shape.

Additionally, Trump had to make some difficult decisions regarding his future after failing to meet his own expectations during the Alaska summit.

► Does he go back to his earlier attempts to exert pressure on Ukraine in an effort to force a settlement that would justify Putin’s unlawful invasion and allow states to redraw international borders, thus undoing a fundamental aspect of the post-World War II era?

► Or does he turn back to US pressure and sanctions in an attempt to reset Russian calculations as the dust settles and he looks to restore the harm to his reputation? In his Fox News interview, he at least hinted at the potential of using sticks rather than carrots, stating: “We don’t have to think about that right now, but I may have to think about it in two weeks or three weeks or something.”

► As an alternative, Trump can agree to the Russian idea of final peace talks. History demonstrates that the Russians would not honor this in the long run, nor would it be quick. He’s hoping for a three-way summit between Putin, Zelensky and himself. That would satisfy his craving for spectacle and big made-for-TV events. But after Friday’s evidence that Russia doesn’t want to end the war, it’s hard to see how it would create breakthroughs.

► It’s also possible that Trump grows disillusioned or disinterested in the minutiae and grind of a protracted peace process that doesn’t offer him any significant, immediate victories to share with his followers.

“Style plays a big role in (Trump).” Before the summit, Jim Townsend, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for European and NATO affairs who is currently with the Center for New American Security, stated that there isn’t much genuine pleasure in delving into the details of issues. The meringue on top appeals to him. And I believe that’s how people can control you.

In Alaska, Trump’s style-before-substance approach obviously backfired. When Trump winged it, Putin looked far more prepared. When looking back, it’s difficult to discern what the Russian president promised US ambassador Steve Witkoff in the Kremlin to persuade the administration that the Alaska discussions were worthwhile.

Furthermore, Russia is obviously taking advantage of Trump’s need for photo ops in the hopes of maintaining his interest while making little other concessions.

Trump’s bid for the Nobel Prize was unsuccessful.

Trump might still be Ukraine’s greatest chance for peace. Unlike Ukraine or its European friends, he can communicate directly with Putin. In the end, US strength will be required to ensure Ukrainian security because Europeans are unable to achieve it on their own. Additionally, the US is still able to use both primary and secondary sanctions to harm Russia and Putin.

Trump must want to do it, though. He appears to be back under Putin’s influence for the time being.

Ukraine will be concerned about Trump’s credulity and the Russian leader’s obvious manipulation of the US president. Putin lauded Trump’s second term on Fox News, claiming the US was “as hot as a pistol.” Trump had previously believed the US was “dead.”

Additionally, Putin openly reaffirmed Trump’s claim that if he had been president three years prior, the invasion “would never have happened.” “I have no doubt that it would be the case. “I can attest to that,” Putin stated.

The Russian leader confirmed another of Trump’s untrue assertions, telling him that “you can’t have a great democracy with mail-in voting,” and Trump told Fox News’ Sean Hannity that he was “so happy” to hear confirmation from Putin. It is astounding that a US president would believe such evidence from a totalitarian strongman, especially in view of US intelligence agency conclusions that Russian meddling in the 2016 election helped Trump win.

The White House’s recent assertion that Trump is “the President of Peace” was ultimately undermined by the events in Alaska. In order to support his claims that he is bringing about peace on a global scale at an unprecedented rate, Trump has cited initiatives that have reduced tensions in standoffs between India and Pakistan, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Thailand and Cambodia, and Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Regarding these disputes, Trump stated on Fox News, “I seem to have the ability to end them.”

He is deserving of praise for his successful use of US influence in these endeavors, especially the special tool of US economic advantages. Even though the deals are frequently less complete than they seem, he has saved lives.

But his failure so far to end the Ukraine war that he pledged would be so easy to fix — along with US complicity in the humanitarian disaster in Gaza — means a legacy as a peacemaker and the Nobel Prize that he craves remain out of reach.

He once said he could put an end to the conflict in Ukraine in a day. Despite his bravado, a Fox News comment reveals that he has a better grasp of how difficult it will be after Alaska.

“This was the hardest of them all, even though I thought it would be the easiest.”

New developments have been added to this story.