UAE-Backed Separatists in Yemen Demand Independence Referendum Amid Escalating Conflict Over Strategic Territory

As Saudi-backed government forces moved to reclaim territories seized just weeks earlier, Yemen’s southern separatist movement announced on Friday its intention to hold a referendum on independence from the north within the next two years. The declaration has intensified tensions on the ground and deepened political fault lines across the region.

The announcement, made by the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which enjoys strong backing from the United Arab Emirates, is being viewed by Yemen’s internationally recognised government and its Saudi supporters as a significant escalation. While the STC has long advocated for southern autonomy, this marks its clearest and most direct signal yet of an eventual bid for secession.

The statement came just hours after the Yemeni government revealed that, with direct Saudi military support, it had launched an operation to retake the strategically vital Hadramout province—one of the most important territories captured by the STC during its rapid advance last month.

Shift in Regional Power Dynamics

Yemen, which has endured more than a decade of devastating conflict, witnessed a major shift in power following the separatists’ unexpected surge in early December. The offensive not only disrupted the fragile military equilibrium but also shattered the coalition formed to counter the Iran-backed Houthi movement.

For years, Yemen has remained divided between rival forces: southern factions and militias operating under the umbrella of the internationally recognised government—many supported by Gulf powers—and the northern highlands firmly controlled by the Houthis.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, both influential members of OPEC and once the twin pillars of regional security in Yemen, have increasingly found themselves at odds. Their divergence now spans geopolitics, military strategy, and even disagreements over oil production quotas.

Saudi officials and representatives of Yemen’s internationally backed government were not immediately available to comment on the STC’s referendum announcement, underscoring the sensitivity of the unfolding crisis.

According to an early Saturday report by Yemen’s state-run Saba news agency, Rashad al-Alimi, head of the Saudi-supported Presidential Leadership Council, has formally requested Riyadh to convene a dialogue forum aimed at addressing the deepening southern crisis.

Al-Alimi expressed hope that such a forum would bring together all southern political and military actors “without distinction,” explicitly including the UAE-backed separatist movement.

Several southern political factions and prominent figures have publicly backed the proposal, criticising what they described as “unilateral measures” taken by STC leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi on the southern issue and urging Saudi Arabia to intervene diplomatically.

Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry welcomed the call for talks and urged all southern factions to participate, signalling Riyadh’s preference for political dialogue over prolonged confrontation.

Meanwhile, the governor of Hadramout, aligned with the internationally recognised government, announced on Friday that government forces had begun operations to regain control of the province. He later claimed that a key military base had been recaptured during the fighting.

Both the STC and a Saudi-backed local tribal group said Airstrikes had supported the operation, though details about responsibility and casualties remain unclear.

STC spokesperson Mohammed al-Naqeeb stated that the group’s forces were on high alert across Hadramout and warned that the separatists would not hesitate to use force if necessary.

Hadramout, an oil-rich province bordering Saudi Arabia, holds deep cultural and historical significance for the kingdom, as many prominent Saudi families trace their ancestry to the region. The STC’s capture of the province last month was therefore perceived in Riyadh as a direct strategic threat.

Saudi Arabia did not immediately respond to requests for comment regarding the reported airstrikes, and it remains unclear whether the clashes resulted in civilian or military casualties.

The United Arab Emirates, meanwhile, said it had handled the recent escalation with restraint, coordination, and a deliberate commitment to de-escalation, without directly addressing the specific events of Friday.

Tensions Persist After UAE Troop Withdrawal

In one of the most serious public disputes between the two Gulf oil powerhouses in recent years, the UAE announced last week that it would withdraw its remaining forces from Yemen. The decision followed Saudi Arabia’s support for a request that Emirati personnel leave the country within 24 hours.

While the move temporarily eased diplomatic pressure between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, tensions on the ground have continued, with rival Yemeni factions locked in competition for territory and influence.

Any prolonged disagreement between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—both key members of the OPEC oil exporters’ group—could complicate consensus on oil production and broader energy policy.

OPEC+ delegates are expected to maintain a strategy of keeping first-quarter production steady, according to officials ahead of a virtual meeting scheduled for Sunday with six additional OPEC+ members.

On the ground, disruptions continue. Flights at Aden International Airport—the primary gateway for areas of Yemen outside Houthi control—remain suspended as the STC and Saudi Arabia trade blame over the shutdown.

Although conflicting reports persist over who ordered the suspension, the halt has been linked to new restrictions imposed by the internationally recognised government on flights between Aden and the United Arab Emirates.

As Yemen’s conflict grows increasingly fragmented, the STC’s push for a referendum highlights a sobering reality: the country’s war is no longer defined solely by the fight against the Houthis, but by competing visions for Yemen’s future unity—or division.