Why the Largest Baloch Attack in Decades Is a Wake-Up Call for China and the United States

On Saturday, militants belonging to the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) launched a series of highly coordinated suicide bombings and armed assaults across Pakistan’s Balochistan province. The attacks targeted civilians, police stations, military and paramilitary installations, marking one of the deadliest days in the province’s recent history and one of Pakistan’s largest militant offensives in decades.

The sheer scale of the violence has sent shockwaves beyond Pakistan’s borders. china and the United States, both of which hold strategic and economic interests in Balochistan, are being urged by analysts to pay close attention. Despite its chronic underdevelopment, Balochistan is rich in natural gas, copper, Gold and rare earth minerals, making it a focal point for foreign investment—particularly from China through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and increasingly from the US, which is eyeing critical mineral supplies.

foreign policy analyst Michael Kugelman underscored this warning in a post on X, stating: “Those eager to invest in Pakistan’s vital mineral reserves, including those in the White House, should take note of today’s attacks in Balochistan.” He noted that the perceived external exploitation of local resources remains one of the BLA’s central grievances.

The Scale of the Saturday BLA Offensive

The BLA referred to the coordinated attacks as “Herof 2”. According to The Native Voices, the term “herof” translates to “black storm” in Balochi literature and poetry, a phrase often associated with renowned poet Karim Dashti. The operation marked a significant escalation compared to Herof 1, launched in 2024, which largely focused on Pakistani security personnel.

Data compiled by the South Asia terrorism Portal, citing reports from The Express Tribune and official Pakistani military statements, indicated that synchronized gunfire and bombings struck a wide geographic area. Locations included Quetta, Noshki, Mastung, Dalbandin, Kalat, Kharan, Panjgur, Gwadar, Pasni, Turbat, Tump, Buleda, Mangochar, Lasbela, Kech and Awaran. Targets ranged from government buildings and security installations to transport infrastructure and civilian areas.

An officer from Pakistan’s Intelligence Bureau in Quetta told The Native Voices that an estimated 800 to 1,000 fighters, including women, may have taken part in the operation. The BLA has not officially confirmed these figures.

In Quetta, heavily armed militants attacked multiple police stations and mobile patrol units, detonated explosives at Hockey Chowk, and blocked several arterial roads. In Mastung, insurgents stormed the Central Prison using guns and explosives, freeing at least 30 inmates.

A senior police official told Reuters that at least 11 people, including women and children, were killed when militants attacked a camp housing migrant workers in Gwadar. Elsewhere, rebels abducted Deputy Commissioner Hussain Hazara and his family in Nushki, while clashes were reported near the Deputy Commissioner’s office and Police Lines in Kalat.

Major highways in Bolan, Lak Pass and Qila Saifullah–Rakhni were blocked, explosives planted on a railway track in Nasirabad were defused, and a Coast Guard facility in Pasni came under attack. Media reports suggested a death toll of around 200 people.

While the Pakistani military claimed to have killed at least 145 BLA militants, Balochistan Chief Minister Sarfraz Bugti told the BBC that the casualties included at least 31 civilians and 17 security personnel. However, BLA spokesperson Jeeyand Baloch rejected these claims, asserting that 84 members of Pakistan’s army, police, intelligence agencies and counter-terrorism department were killed, with 18 captured alive. He added that seven BLA fighters died, including four suicide attackers.

Why Balochistan Is Critical to Pakistan

Balochistan is Pakistan’s largest province by land area and holds immense strategic value due to its geography. It provides access to the Arabian Sea and shares borders with both Afghanistan and Iran, making it central to regional security and trade dynamics.

According to Risk Intelligence, the province serves as a crucial hub for regional connectivity. The deep-sea port at Gwadar, developed under the CPEC framework, positions Pakistan as a key player in global trade and energy corridors by linking China, Central Asia and the Middle East.

Beyond its location, Balochistan is resource-rich. Research from EBSCO highlights the province’s vast reserves of natural gas, coal, copper, gold and rare earth elements. The Sui gas field, in particular, remains a cornerstone of Pakistan’s energy supply.

American and Chinese Stakes in Balochistan

Both Washington and Beijing view Balochistan as strategically indispensable. In December last year, the US announced a $1.25 billion investment aimed at supporting the extraction of critical minerals such as copper and gold at the Reko Diq site in the remote Chagai district.

Earlier, Pakistan’s Frontier Works Organization signed a $500 million Memorandum of Understanding with Missouri-based USSM to explore rare earth mining and processing opportunities, particularly in Balochistan, which holds the country’s largest known rare earth deposits.

China’s stakes are even higher. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is a flagship component of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. According to The New York Times, CPEC is designed to secure and shorten China’s energy supply routes from the Middle East by bypassing the vulnerable Strait of Malacca.

The project’s backbone includes the Gwadar port and an extensive road and rail network connecting China’s Xinjiang region to the Arabian Sea through Balochistan.

Balochistan’s Security Nightmare: Why the Violence Persists

The Baloch insurgency is not a sudden phenomenon but the result of a conflict that has simmered for decades. Since 1948, Pakistani security forces have repeatedly clashed with Baloch rebels seeking greater autonomy or independence. Despite sustained military operations, the frequency and intensity of BLA attacks since 2020 suggest the movement is stronger than ever.

Saturday’s offensive is particularly significant for China and the US because the insurgency is increasingly driven by opposition to foreign involvement in the region. One of the BLA’s core arguments is that Balochistan’s resources are being exploited by outsiders, with little benefit flowing to the local population.

The group accuses Islamabad of extracting gas from Sui and minerals such as copper and gold while offering minimal economic returns to Baloch communities. According to the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, Balochistan remains Pakistan’s poorest province, with low royalty rates—around 12.5% for gas—often further diluted before reaching local stakeholders.

As foreign investment grows, the BLA’s hostility toward external actors has intensified. In 2023, at least four Chinese nationals were killed when militants attacked a convoy of Chinese engineers in Balochistan. Similar assaults in 2024 claimed the lives of at least two more Chinese citizens.

The magnitude of the latest attacks underscores a harsh reality: Balochistan’s economic ambitions cannot be separated from its long-standing grievances. As China and the United States deepen their involvement, they may face escalating security challenges unless the underlying political and economic issues driving the insurgency are addressed.