Bihar Election 2025: Record Phase 1 Turnout at 64.66% – Who Should Be Worried?

As Bihar witnessed its highest-ever voter turnout in the first phase of the 2025 Assembly elections, both the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) are interpreting the numbers to their advantage. The 64.66% turnout represents an 8.5 percentage point rise from 2020’s 56.1%, signaling an unprecedented surge in public participation.

Held across 121 constituencies in 18 districts on Thursday, the first phase saw 3.75 crore voters cast their ballots-almost two-thirds of the total electorate-despite it being a weekday. In contrast, the first phase of the 2020 assembly polls covered 71 constituencies, where 2.06 crore of 3.70 crore eligible voters turned up. The next phase of voting begins on November 11, with results set to be declared on November 14.

Historically, a spike in voter turnout has often been read as a sign of anti-incumbency-a yearning for change. Yet, that isn’t always the case. In some elections, higher turnout has reflected enthusiasm for the ruling dispensation. So, what does this record-breaking turnout mean for Bihar’s political future?

A Look Back: Bihar’s Voting History and Power Shifts

Bihar’s political history offers intriguing insights: every time voter turnout rose by more than 5%, the state saw a change in leadership. Below is a quick snapshot of key elections where turnout spikes coincided with shifts in power.

This pattern suggests that surging voter participation in Bihar often signals political transition. With an 8.5% increase this time, speculation is rife – could history repeat itself again?

The Political Battleground: Who Holds the Edge?

The first-phase constituencies-mostly located south of the Ganga-span key regions like Mithilanchal, Kosi, Munger, Saran, and Bhojpur. These zones have historically been at the heart of Bihar’s political battles and often act as a bellwether for statewide trends.

In 2020, these 121 seats were fiercely contested, with the NDA winning 59 seats and the Mahagathbandhan (comprising RJD, congress, and Left parties) securing 61 seats. Within the alliance, the RJD led by Tejashwi Yadav emerged as the single-largest party with 42 seats. The BJP won 32, JD(U) bagged 23, and Congress managed 8. Left parties combined for 11 seats, while smaller outfits like VIP and LJP split the rest.

This year, however, the equation has changed drastically due to reshuffled alliances. Leaders Upendra Kushwaha and Chirag Paswan, who contested independently in 2020, have rejoined the NDA. Meanwhile, Mukesh Sahani’s VIP has switched sides to join the Mahagathbandhan.

Nitish vs. Tejashwi: Bihar’s Defining Contest

The 2025 election is being dubbed Nitish Kumar’s final battle. The JD(U) stalwart-nicknamed ‘Paltu Chacha’ for his history of political flips-is eyeing an unprecedented 10th term as Chief Minister. His challenger, Tejashwi Yadav, hopes to script a generational change and restore RJD’s dominance by uniting anti-NDA sentiment under the Mahagathbandhan banner.

For Nitish, this election isn’t just about victory-it’s about legacy. For Tejashwi, it’s about proving that Bihar’s youth are ready to embrace change. With the voter surge largely coming from younger demographics and first-time voters, both sides have reasons for optimism-and concern.

What the Numbers Could Mean

Historically, Bihar’s increased voter participation has often aligned with a demand for change. Whether this wave reflects discontent with the incumbent or a renewed trust in Nitish’s leadership will become clear once votes are counted.

Yet one thing is certain – Bihar’s electorate has spoken loudly this time. With turnout surging to an all-time high, November 14 promises to be a political reckoning. If history’s patterns hold true, a record turnout might just herald a shift in Bihar’s power balance.

Until then, both alliances – the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan – will be watching closely, wondering: who should really be more concerned?