Why Tejashwi Yadav Refuses to Be Written Off by Bihar Exit Pollsters Ahead of 2025 Results

Patna, November 11: Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav has spent the past month crisscrossing Bihar, addressing over 170 public rallies and trying to convince voters that he represents the change they seek. But as exit polls now project a comfortable victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the 36-year-old Mahagathbandhan leader appeared visibly skeptical when facing the media.

“Exit polls were being released even while people were still waiting to vote,” Tejashwi said with visible frustration. “We neither live in false optimism nor misunderstanding,” he added, calling the polls “a tactic to exert psychological pressure” on electoral officials.

Exit Polls Predict Big Gains for Nitish Kumar-Led NDA

Since the evening of November 11, major exit polls have consistently indicated a wide margin for the NDA in Bihar’s 243-member assembly. Several projections placed the NDA between 145 and 160 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan was estimated to secure between 73 and 91 seats.

According to Today’s Chanakya, the NDA may win around 160 seats, with the RJD-led alliance limited to 77. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party could win up to two seats, the survey suggested. Axis My India gave similar numbers, predicting 121–140 seats for the NDA and 98–118 seats for the opposition bloc.

Overall, the message appeared clear: the BJP–JD(U) combine has retained its electoral grip, defying anti-incumbency trends. But for Tejashwi, who ran arguably the most energetic campaign of the election season, the timing and tone of the projections appeared too convenient to be coincidental.

“No Transparency, Only Theatre,” Says Tejashwi

“The sample size and survey methods have not even been disclosed,” Tejashwi said. “Ask anyone releasing these exit polls—they cannot tell you who was surveyed or where. This is not transparency; it’s theatre.”

The Optics of Disbelief and Political Strategy

Tejashwi’s rejection of the polls is not merely emotional—it’s strategic. Political observers say that skepticism helps maintain cadre morale and build a counter-narrative. But beneath the surface, it also reveals a deeper personal frustration: his campaign symbolized youth, ambition, and generational change in a state long shaped by caste-based politics.

From Siwan to Begusarai, Tejashwi attracted large, enthusiastic crowds with promises of jobs, safety, and women-centric welfare. His message resonated widely, but converting that enthusiasm into votes was another matter.

This year’s election saw Bihar’s highest-ever turnout—66.91%. Women voters not only outnumbered men proportionally but also in absolute numbers (25.1 million women vs. 24.7 million men), signaling a surge of new political energy. Tejashwi believed this voter enthusiasm would translate into a mandate for change.

“The Results Will Be Out on the 14th—Oath on the 18th”

Tejashwi told reporters confidently, “We have received overwhelming feedback. Everyone has voted against this government, and this time change is inevitable. The results will be out on the 14th, and the oath ceremony will be on the 18th.”

Deja Vu: Lessons from the 2020 Bihar Election

For Tejashwi, this skepticism carries echoes of 2020, when the Mahagathbandhan narrowly missed forming the government despite strong performances. Back then, exit polls had predicted a tight race with a slight edge for the RJD—but they were off the mark.

This time, pollsters have reversed their error, predicting a clear NDA majority. If accurate, the numbers suggest that Nitish Kumar’s welfare politics continues to appeal to women, OBCs, and EBCs, groups that have historically shaped Bihar’s electoral base.

Yet, exit polls in Bihar have often missed the mark. In 2015, they underestimated the Mahagathbandhan’s sweep; in 2020, they failed to detect a late swing toward the NDA. The state’s complex caste structure, gender divide, and rural-urban variations make accurate sampling extremely difficult. “No other state punishes lazy psephology as brutally as Bihar,” remarked a senior IAS officer in Patna.

Psychological Pressure and Perception Management

Tejashwi’s charge that exit polls create “psychological pressure” isn’t without merit. In the 48-hour window before vote counting, televised projections can significantly shape public mood, influence smaller parties’ alliance decisions, and impact counting agents’ morale.

“This is a tactic to influence not just voters but also officials,” Tejashwi alleged, hinting that pollsters might be aligned with ruling party interests. Opposition parties often believe that early narratives of inevitability can tilt perceptions before final results.

Meanwhile, RJD campaign managers insist their internal feedback paints a very different picture. “We are leading in more than 100 seats,” claimed one strategist. “The energy on the ground is undeniable—people want change.”

Waiting for Judgment Day: November 14

Whether this optimism is justified will become clear on November 14, when results are declared. Until then, Tejashwi’s stance is one of “measured defiance”—acknowledging the data but refusing to be swayed by it.

For the young RJD leader, the battle is not just about votes but about transforming his father Lalu Yadav’s legacy into a new political identity centered on jobs, dignity, and youth empowerment. Balancing the traditional Muslim-Yadav vote bank with new aspirational classes has been his biggest test.

Between Faith and Doubt: The RJD’s Moment of Truth

The 2025 exit polls may not fully capture the shifting dynamics of Bihar’s electorate. Even critics admit that Tejashwi’s campaign has revived the RJD’s emotional appeal and restored its ideological focus. Whether that translates into seats remains uncertain.

In 2020, pollsters overrated Tejashwi’s chances. In 2025, most have written him off. Ironically, that symmetry could work in his favor. “If they overestimated us then,” one RJD leader said, “perhaps they’re underestimating us now.”

As Patna braces for counting day, the atmosphere at the RJD headquarters is one of cautious anticipation—an uneasy mix of suspicion and hope. Tejashwi’s final words sum up the mood perfectly: a balancing act between faith and doubt, mandate and memory.