Predicting the Ballon d’Or winners is never straightforward. Every year, football’s most prestigious individual awards spark intense debate among fans, players, coaches, and journalists, with outstanding performances, major trophies, and individual statistics all influencing the final decision. The 2026 race is no different, with several leading contenders making compelling cases for recognition.
The unpredictability of the award was evident in 2024, when Real Madrid’s Vinícius Júnior reportedly spent weeks expecting to win the men’s Ballon d’Or, only to learn hours before the ceremony that Manchester City midfielder Rodri had been selected instead. That episode demonstrated just how difficult it can be to anticipate the outcome before the official announcement.
This year’s competition presents another fascinating challenge. Barcelona teenager Lamine Yamal has continued to attract attention with his performances, Harry Kane has enjoyed a prolific campaign for Bayern Munich, and Kylian Mbappé has delivered impressive numbers for Real Madrid. Meanwhile, Lionel Messi and Rodri were among the leading figures at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, where Rodri was ultimately named the tournament’s best player, according to the supplied report.
The women’s Ballon d’Or race is equally compelling. Alexia Putellas is a leading contender after captaining Barcelona to another trophy-laden season, but she faces competition from teammates and other world-class players who have delivered outstanding performances for club and country.
With the winners scheduled to be revealed at a ceremony in London on October 26, ESPN conducted a global voting experiment to see whether its journalists could predict the results. By assembling ballots from journalists based in different countries and following a points system inspired by the official voting process, the organisation attempted to identify the players most likely to collect football’s most prestigious individual honours.
How Did ESPN Attempt to Predict the Ballon d’Or Winners?
The official Ballon d’Or voting process involves journalists from different countries evaluating the shortlisted players. The men’s award uses a panel of 100 journalists, while the women’s Ballon d’Or voting panel consists of 50 journalists representing 50 countries.
ESPN adapted that approach for its experiment, bringing together 20 journalists from around the world. Each participant submitted a ballot based on the official shortlists, allowing the organisation to compare opinions across different football markets and regions.
ESPN’s Ballon d’Or Voting Methodology
The experiment followed four main principles:
- Global participation: ESPN invited 20 journalists from around the world, with one representative from each country, to submit a ballot.
- Official shortlists: Participants selected players from the official Ballon d’Or shortlists.
- Ranking system: Voters selected their top five players for the men’s and women’s Ballon d’Or awards and their top three candidates for the other categories.
- Points allocation: First place received 15 points, second place earned 12 points, third received 10 points, fourth received eight points, and fifth received six points.
Although the experiment did not reproduce the official voting panel in full, it offered an international snapshot of how football journalists assess the leading candidates. The results also highlighted the different factors that influence individual voters, including goal-scoring records, major trophies, performances on the international stage, and a player’s overall contribution to their team.
The findings produced two headline predictions: Harry Kane for the men’s Ballon d’Or and Alexia Putellas for the women’s award. However, the individual ballots revealed considerable debate over which players deserved to finish at the top.
Men’s Ballon d’Or 2026: Players Who Received First-Place Votes
The men’s race featured several candidates with strong arguments for winning the award. Some voters prioritised individual statistics, while others placed greater emphasis on international success, team achievements, or a player’s influence beyond the traditional numbers.
Lamine Yamal Barcelona, Right Winger
Lamine Yamal has emerged as one of the most exciting young players in world football, and his performances for Barcelona have placed him among the leading Ballon d’Or contenders. His technical ability, creativity, and composure have helped establish him as a central figure in the club’s attacking setup.
His international performances also strengthened his case. ESPN Guatemala reporter Josué Utrilla highlighted Yamal’s contribution to Spain’s World Cup triumph and his impressive form in La Liga.
“I believe that being a world champion — while playing a key role in Spain’s attack and enjoying excellent form with Barcelona in LaLiga — demonstrates the talent he possesses at such a young age (19) and has earned him a place among football’s biggest stars.”
Yamal’s age makes his achievements particularly remarkable, but his candidacy rests on more than his status as a young superstar. His ability to influence matches through dribbling, chance creation, and decisive attacking contributions has made him one of Barcelona’s most important players.
Despite receiving a first-place vote in ESPN’s experiment, Yamal was reportedly overlooked by most of the panel’s top choices. That result illustrated the difficulty of winning the Ballon d’Or when several established stars have produced exceptional individual campaigns.
Harry Kane Bayern Munich, Striker
Harry Kane emerged as ESPN’s predicted winner of the men’s Ballon d’Or after a remarkable season for Bayern Munich and England. The striker’s extraordinary goal-scoring record and overall attacking contribution gave him a strong case, even though he did not win either the World Cup or the Champions League.
According to ESPN UK senior writer Tom Hamilton, Kane’s individual achievements made him the standout candidate.
“Okay, he didn’t win the World Cup, or the Champions League, but Kane’s year is unsurpassed. He scored 73 goals in 65 matches across the England national team and Bayern. It’s a freakish record, the like of which we’ll never see again. Let’s park sentimentality and aesthetic-influenced bias; this award rewards individual brilliance.”
ESPN Netherlands reporter Thijs Zwagerman also argued that Kane’s contribution extended beyond his finishing ability. He highlighted the striker’s ability to drop deeper, influence possession, and operate as a playmaker while maintaining an exceptional goal-scoring record.
“Despite scoring goals at an extraordinary rate for years, Kane still does not receive the full recognition he deserves on the international stage. His qualities extend far beyond his remarkable goal-scoring record. He possesses the rare ability for a striker to drop deep, influence the game from a deeper position and operate like a playmaker as well.”
Zwagerman added that Kane’s lack of a Champions League or World Cup title should not diminish his individual achievements.
For Kane, the ESPN prediction represents recognition of a season in which his consistency, finishing, and creative contribution made him one of the world’s most productive players. A Ballon d’Or victory would also carry historical significance, potentially making him only the fifth Englishman to win the award after Sir Stanley Matthews, Sir Bobby Charlton, Kevin Keegan, and Michael Owen.
Lionel Messi Inter Miami CF, Forward
Lionel Messi continued to attract support despite playing in Major League Soccer with Inter Miami. His supporters argued that his individual quality and influence on Argentina’s international performances remained sufficient to place him among the world’s leading players.
ESPN India editor Anirudh Menon argued that the award should recognise the best footballer in the world rather than being determined primarily by the league in which a player competes.
“If this award is to be given to the best footballer on the planet, there can only be one answer. He may be 39 years old; he may even be playing in Major League Soccer (where he did win the MLS Cup and topped almost every attacking chart in the league), but the 2026 World Cup showed just how vast the gulf between Messi and everyone else remains. When he turns it on, there isn’t anyone close. Give him his ninth Ballon d’Or already.”
ESPN Argentina reporter Teo Coquet also highlighted Messi’s attacking influence and his performances for Argentina at the World Cup.
“I choose him because of his attacking influence and ability to remain decisive on the international stage. His performance for Argentina at the World Cup is also a key factor in my evaluation. At 39 years old, he has played one of the best World Cups of his career.”
Messi’s candidacy reflects the enduring debate over how the Ballon d’Or should balance individual excellence, international performances, and the level of competition in which a player performs. His supporters believe his ability to influence matches remains exceptional, regardless of the league in which he plays.
Kylian Mbappé Real Madrid, Striker
Kylian Mbappé also received first-place votes, with supporters pointing to his extraordinary goal-scoring output across domestic and European competitions. The Real Madrid forward’s pace, finishing, and ability to make decisive contributions have made him one of the most dangerous attackers in world football.
ESPN Mexico reporter Omar Flores highlighted Mbappé’s scoring achievements during the 2025-26 campaign and his performances at the World Cup.
“Mbappé was the leading scorer across every competition he played in during the 2025-26 season, topping the charts in both the UEFA Champions League and Spain’s LaLiga. At the World Cup, the France star scored 10 goals and became the tournament’s all-time leading scorer (22 goals). Although he was unable to help his team advance beyond the semifinals, he remains one of the leading candidates to win the Ballon d’Or.”
ESPN Colombia reporter Carlos Valdez also argued that Mbappé’s ability to change matches made him a worthy candidate.
“I would put Mbappé first because of his extraordinary ability to make the difference at the highest level. His pace, finishing, consistency and capacity to deliver in decisive moments make him one of the most influential players in world football.”
Valdez’s assessment reflected the importance of both statistics and match-winning performances in the Ballon d’Or debate. Mbappé’s goals across La Liga, the Champions League, and the World Cup strengthened his case, even though France’s campaign ended before the final.
Fabián Ruiz Paris Saint-Germain, Central Midfielder
Fabián Ruiz was another player to receive a first-place vote in ESPN’s experiment. Although he may not attract the same commercial attention as some of the more famous contenders, his supporters argued that his contribution to Paris Saint-Germain and Spain deserved greater recognition.
ESPN Spain reporter Moises Llorens made a strong case for the midfielder, focusing on his role in PSG’s Champions League success and Spain’s World Cup-winning campaign.
“If we forget about the cameras, the spotlights, the commercial interests, and all the pomp that increasingly accompanies the business of football, then Ruiz should win the Ballon d’Or. I have no doubt about it. Why? It’s simple. He was an undisputed and fundamental player for PSG’s repeated Champions League title success last season, and was equally fundamental for Luis de la Fuente’s victorious Spain side at the 2026 World Cup when Pedri wasn’t at his best in midfield.”
Llorens argued that Ruiz had collected major honours while consistently performing at a high level. In his view, the midfielder’s lack of marketing appeal could work against him despite his importance to two successful teams.
Ruiz’s candidacy highlights a recurring issue in individual football awards: players who control matches through positioning, passing, and tactical intelligence may receive less attention than those whose contributions are easier to measure through goals and assists.
Rodri Barcelona, Central Midfielder
Rodri also received a first-place vote, with his influence on Spain’s World Cup-winning campaign forming the centrepiece of his case. The midfielder’s ability to dictate the tempo, maintain possession, and organise the team has made him one of the most influential players in his position.
ESPN Chile analyst Jean Beausejour argued that winning the World Cup carries particular weight in a year when the international tournament takes place.
“In a World Cup year, winning the tournament carries enormous weight. Rodri had a tremendous influence on Spain’s performances on football’s biggest stage. Spain’s ability to dominate matches, control the tempo and impose their style of play against different opponents was largely down to Rodri’s intelligence, positioning and exceptional ability to dictate the game.”
Beausejour’s argument emphasised that a player’s value cannot always be measured through goals, assists, or other individual statistics. Rodri’s influence on the rhythm and structure of Spain’s play was central to his case for the award.
His presence among the first-place selections also demonstrated the range of criteria ESPN’s journalists considered when ranking the contenders.
ESPN’s Predicted Men’s Ballon d’Or Winner: Harry Kane
After collecting the votes from its international panel, ESPN predicted that Harry Kane would win the men’s Ballon d’Or. The result reflected the striker’s exceptional production across the season, although the voting pattern showed that the race remained highly divisive.
Kane reportedly received half of the first-place votes, but only one of the other 10 voters ranked him second. The uneven distribution illustrated how strongly opinions differed among the journalists, even when many recognised Kane’s individual achievements.
One of the biggest surprises was the limited number of first-place votes for Yamal, who received just one despite his outstanding season with Barcelona and Spain.
ESPN writer Bill Connelly had previously highlighted the difference in playing time and attacking production between the two leading candidates.
“Kane played eight more matches and over 600 more minutes than Yamal — which is to say, he stayed healthier than a player 14 years his junior — and he produced 81 combined goals and assists, a full 36 more than Yamal.”
The comparison helped explain why some voters favoured Kane. His greater availability and overall contribution gave him a statistical advantage, while his ability to produce consistently across club and international football strengthened his case.
However, the official result will ultimately depend on the full voting panel rather than ESPN’s smaller experiment. The prediction offers an indication of how a group of international journalists evaluated the race, not a guarantee of the final outcome.
Women’s Ballon d’Or 2026: The Leading Candidates
The women’s Ballon d’Or race also featured several outstanding candidates. Barcelona’s success provided a strong foundation for the cases of Alexia Putellas, Ewa Pajor, and Patri Guijarro, while Temwa Chawinga earned support for her individual performances in the United States.
ESPN’s experiment ultimately identified Putellas as its predicted winner, with the midfielder’s leadership and contribution to Barcelona’s trophy-winning campaign placing her at the top of the rankings.
Alexia Putellas London City Lionesses, Attacking Midfielder
Alexia Putellas was a leading candidate after captaining Barcelona through another successful campaign. Her performances helped the Spanish club secure the Liga F, UEFA Women’s Champions League, Copa de la Reina, and Supercopa de España titles before she moved to London City Lionesses.
ESPN Africa reporter Leonard Solms highlighted Putellas’ statistics and versatility during her final season with Barcelona.
“In her final season at Barcelona, midfield maestro Putellas not only captained Barcelona to the Liga F, UEFA Women’s Champions League, Copa de la Reina and Supercopa de España trophies — but also scored 20 goals and assisted 14 in 43 games. Capable of filling multiple roles in the team, Putellas is the kind of player any manager would love to have 11 of, and her brilliance should not be taken for granted.”
ESPN Australia editor Marissa Lordanic also praised Putellas’ importance to the team, describing her as a player who consistently delivered in major matches.
“Putellas was once again invaluable across multiple competitions. The epitome of a big-game player, she ensured Barcelona’s trophy case continued to grow before she tested herself in a new league.”
Putellas’ combination of leadership, creativity, and goal contributions made her a compelling candidate. Her ability to operate in different roles also helped Barcelona maintain their attacking threat throughout a demanding season.
Ewa Pajor Barcelona, Striker
Ewa Pajor was another strong contender following an impressive campaign with Barcelona. The striker combined prolific goal-scoring with important contributions in major matches, helping the club win several major trophies.
ESPN Brasil reporter Gustavo Hofman highlighted Pajor’s production and her decisive performances in the Champions League.
“Pajor combined outstanding individual production with collective success and delivered when it mattered most. She recorded 34 goals and eight assists in 46 appearances for club and country, helping Barcelona win the Champions League, Liga F, Copa de la Reina and Spanish Super Cup.”
Hofman also highlighted Pajor’s movement and clinical finishing, arguing that her Champions League performances ultimately strengthened her candidacy. She finished as the competition’s leading scorer with 11 goals and scored twice in Barcelona’s 4-0 victory over OL Lyonnes in the final.
ESPN Africa reporter Ed Dove similarly praised Pajor’s contribution to Barcelona’s trophy-winning campaign. He noted that she scored in every knockout round Barcelona played before finding the net twice in the final.
Pajor’s case demonstrates how a striker’s contribution can be evaluated through both individual output and performances in decisive matches. Her goal-scoring record and role in Barcelona’s success made her a serious contender for individual recognition.
Temwa Chawinga Kansas City Current, Forward
Temwa Chawinga received a first-place vote after another impressive period of performances in the National Women’s Soccer League. The forward has built a reputation for her pace, direct running, and ability to create opportunities in one-on-one situations.
ESPN US reporter Jeff Kassouf argued that Chawinga’s ability to change a match through individual brilliance set her apart from other candidates.
“No player changes a game like Chawinga. She can create chances on her own in one-vs.-one situations from literally inside her own half on the counter attack, and is a sharp goal scorer.”
Kassouf also highlighted her goal-scoring output in the NWSL and her performances for Malawi. He argued that her combination of pace, finishing, and individual creativity made her a world-class attacking threat.
Her inclusion among the first-place selections showed that ESPN’s voters were willing to recognise outstanding individual performances beyond the most decorated European clubs.
Patri Guijarro Barcelona, Central Midfielder
Patri Guijarro also received a first-place vote, with her supporters emphasising her importance to Barcelona’s midfield structure. Although she often operates away from the spotlight, her work helps create the conditions for the team’s attacking stars to flourish.
ESPN Spain reporter Moises Llorens described Guijarro as a central figure in Barcelona’s women’s team.
“The backbone of Barcelona’s women’s team and an excellent midfielder who makes runs from the second line. Other players usually steal the spotlight, but her talent is unquestionable. She makes the rest of the team shine.”
Guijarro’s candidacy underlines the importance of midfielders whose influence extends beyond direct goal contributions. Her positioning, movement, and ability to connect different phases of play have made her an important part of Barcelona’s success.
ESPN’s Predicted Women’s Ballon d’Or Winner: Alexia Putellas
ESPN’s experiment predicted Alexia Putellas to win the women’s Ballon d’Or, with the result reflecting her outstanding campaign and leadership during Barcelona’s trophy-winning season.
Putellas enjoyed a memorable conclusion to her 14-year spell at Barcelona, captaining the club to another successful campaign that included the Women’s Champions League. Her departure to London City Lionesses marked a new chapter in her career after years of success in Spain.
According to the supplied report, London City Lionesses were third in the Women’s Super League after five matches following Putellas’ move. Her new challenge in England adds another dimension to a career already defined by major trophies and individual recognition.
If Putellas wins the award, she would claim her third Ballon d’Or, joining former Barcelona teammate Aitana Bonmatí among the award’s most frequent recipients.
The ESPN prediction reflects the strength of Putellas’ case, but the official voting result will determine whether she secures another major individual honour.
Other Ballon d’Or Awards: ESPN’s Predictions
Alongside the men’s and women’s Ballon d’Or awards, the ceremony will recognise outstanding performances across several other categories. ESPN’s voting experiment also produced predictions for the young player, goalkeeper, coach, and club awards.
Men’s Young Player of the Year Kopa Trophy
- Lamine Yamal Barcelona, Spain
- Pau Cubarsí Barcelona, Spain
- Yan Diomandé Real Madrid, Ivory Coast
Yamal topped ESPN’s predicted ranking for the men’s young player award. His performances for Barcelona and Spain have established him as one of the most exciting young talents in football, while teammate Pau Cubarsí also featured among the leading candidates.
Women’s Young Player of the Year
- Vicky López Barcelona, Spain
- Lily Yohannes OL Lyonnes, United States
- Felicia Schröder Real Madrid, Sweden
Vicky López led ESPN’s predicted ranking for the women’s young player award, reflecting the strength of Barcelona’s emerging talent. Lily Yohannes and Felicia Schröder completed the top three in the experiment.
Men’s Goalkeeper of the Year
- Unai Simón Athletic Club, Spain
- David Raya Arsenal, Spain
- Joan García Barcelona, Spain
Unai Simón was ESPN’s predicted winner of the men’s goalkeeper award. David Raya and Joan García followed in the rankings, highlighting the competition among goalkeepers who have impressed at club and international level.
Women’s Goalkeeper of the Year
- Cata Coll Barcelona, Spain
- Hannah Hampton Chelsea, England
- Ann-Katrin Berger Gotham FC, Germany, tied
- Ayaka Yamashita Manchester City, Japan, tied
Cata Coll topped ESPN’s predicted ranking for the women’s goalkeeper award, with Hannah Hampton in second place. Ann-Katrin Berger and Ayaka Yamashita shared third place in the experiment.
Men’s Coach of the Year
- Luis de la Fuente Spain
- Luis Enrique Paris Saint-Germain
- Mikel Arteta Arsenal
Spain manager Luis de la Fuente led ESPN’s predicted ranking after his team’s success on the international stage. Luis Enrique and Mikel Arteta followed, reflecting the achievements of their respective teams.
Women’s Coach of the Year
- Pere Romeu Barcelona
- Jonatan Giráldez OL Lyonnes
- Andree Jeglertz Manchester City
Pere Romeu topped ESPN’s predicted ranking for the women’s coaching award, with Barcelona’s trophy-winning campaign strengthening his case. Jonatan Giráldez and Andree Jeglertz completed the top three.
Men’s Club of the Year
- Paris Saint-Germain
- Arsenal
- Bayern Munich
Paris Saint-Germain led ESPN’s predicted ranking for the men’s club award, ahead of Arsenal and Bayern Munich. The selection reflected the French club’s achievements and its position among Europe’s leading teams.
Women’s Club of the Year
- Barcelona
- OL Lyonnes
- Manchester City
Barcelona topped the predicted ranking for the women’s club award after another successful campaign. OL Lyonnes and Manchester City followed, completing the three leading clubs in ESPN’s experiment.
Can ESPN’s Ballon d’Or Predictions Match the Official Results?
ESPN’s global experiment offers an interesting look at how football journalists assess the leading candidates for the 2026 Ballon d’Or awards. The voting produced clear predictions in some categories, particularly the women’s Ballon d’Or, while the men’s race revealed substantial disagreement over which player deserved the top honour.
Harry Kane’s exceptional goal-scoring record gave him the edge in ESPN’s predicted men’s ranking, but support for Yamal, Messi, Mbappé, Ruiz, and Rodri demonstrated the different ways voters evaluate individual excellence. The race is not simply about who wins the most trophies or scores the most goals; it also involves judgments about influence, consistency, and performances in decisive moments.
Putellas emerged as ESPN’s predicted winner of the women’s award after helping Barcelona secure another trophy-laden campaign. Her leadership, versatility, and attacking contributions made her a strong candidate, although Ewa Pajor’s goal-scoring exploits and the performances of other contenders showed the depth of competition.
The other award predictions highlighted the strength of Barcelona’s representation across several categories, while PSG, Spain, Arsenal, and Bayern Munich also featured prominently.
Ultimately, the experiment remains a prediction rather than an official result. ESPN’s 20 journalists provide a useful international snapshot, but the official awards will be decided by the designated voting panels. When the winners are announced at the London ceremony on October 26, the results will reveal whether the experiment successfully anticipated football’s biggest individual honours.
Until then, Kane and Putellas stand as ESPN’s predicted winners, but the final verdict belongs to the official voters.
For breaking news and live news updates, like us on Facebook or follow us on Twitter and Instagram. Read more on Latest Football on thefoxdaily.com.
COMMENTS 0