Ian Machado Garry vs Islam Makhachev: Brendan Schaub Predicts UFC 330 Submission

Ian Machado Garry vs Islam Makhachev has already generated plenty of debate ahead of UFC 330, but former UFC heavyweight contender Brendan Schaub has offered one of the most decisive predictions yet. Schaub believes Garry’s movement and striking creativity will not be enough to prevent Makhachev from taking control of the fight once the champion closes the distance.

Speaking on The Fighter and The Kid, Schaub predicted that Makhachev would submit Garry inside three rounds. His argument centers on one of the most important questions surrounding the matchup: can Garry consistently keep an elite grappler away from the positions where he is most dangerous?

The bout is particularly fascinating because Garry’s strengths are built around range management, movement and an awkward striking style, while Makhachev has constructed his championship career around pressure, positional control and elite submission grappling. The fight could therefore become a contest between Garry’s ability to create space and Makhachev’s ability to remove it.

Why Brendan Schaub is picking Islam Makhachev

Schaub’s prediction is based less on a belief that Garry cannot compete and more on the stylistic difficulties created by Makhachev.

The former heavyweight contender specifically highlighted Makhachev’s ability to close distance and work opponents against the cage. Those moments can completely change the dynamics of a fight because the fence limits a mobile striker’s escape routes while giving the grappler additional control options.

“Islam’s going to submit him under three. Under three rounds.”

That prediction reflects the central concern for Garry. His striking becomes most effective when he has room to move, establish his preferred range and force an opponent to react to his feints and attacks.

Makhachev’s job will be to prevent that from happening.

The central stylistic battle: movement vs pressure

The most important matchup within this fight may not be simply striking against wrestling. It is movement against pressure.

Garry has developed a reputation for using distance intelligently. Rather than standing directly in front of opponents for extended exchanges, he can change angles, attack from unusual positions and use his reach to make opponents work before they can establish their offense.

That approach can be extremely effective against conventional pressure.

Makhachev, however, presents a different problem. The UFC champion does not necessarily need to win long-range exchanges to succeed. His objective can be as simple as forcing Garry backward until the cage becomes involved.

Once Garry has limited space behind him, the fight changes.

Makhachev can threaten takedowns, chain attacks together and make Garry think about grappling even when an actual takedown is not immediately attempted. That uncertainty can slow down a striker’s footwork and create openings for further attacks.

Why the cage could be critical at UFC 330

Schaub specifically pointed toward Makhachev’s work against the cage, and that could prove to be one of the most important areas of the fight.

A fighter who thrives in open space has considerably fewer options when his back approaches the fence. The opponent can use the cage to prevent lateral movement while working for takedowns or controlling the position.

For Garry, avoiding that situation may be more important than winning every individual striking exchange.

If he can consistently circle away from the fence, reset in the center and make Makhachev repeatedly restart his attacks, he can potentially force the champion to spend energy pursuing him.

If Makhachev repeatedly cuts off the cage instead, Garry could find himself defending grappling exchanges for long stretches.

Brendan Allen’s comments add another layer

Schaub also referenced Brendan Allen, who has trained with Garry and apparently provided his own perspective on the Irish fighter’s grappling.

According to Schaub, Allen suggested that Garry would need to have improved significantly because facing Makhachev represents a completely different level of grappling challenge.

That distinction is important.

Being difficult to take down against one opponent does not automatically mean a fighter can neutralize Makhachev. Elite grapplers often succeed because they do not rely on one takedown attempt. They connect attacks together, transition between positions and continue attacking when the first attempt fails.

That chain wrestling is what Garry will have to solve.

Garry’s biggest advantage could be distance

Despite Schaub’s prediction, Garry has attributes that could make the fight difficult for Makhachev.

His length, footwork and ability to operate at range give him a clear path to making the champion work. Makhachev cannot submit an opponent from the other side of the Octagon, meaning Garry’s first objective is obvious: maintain enough distance to force Makhachev to repeatedly enter striking range.

That could create opportunities for Garry to land straight punches, kicks and counterattacks while avoiding prolonged exchanges.

The challenge is consistency.

Against a fighter as experienced as Makhachev, one successful defensive sequence is not enough. Garry may need to defend multiple entries throughout the fight without allowing the champion to establish prolonged control.

What makes Makhachev’s grappling so difficult to prepare for?

Makhachev’s greatest strength is not simply his ability to take an opponent down. It is what he can do after establishing control.

A takedown can force an opponent to defend against submissions, positional advancement and ground strikes simultaneously. Every defensive movement can potentially create another opening.

That creates a difficult decision tree for Garry.

• Defend the takedown: Makhachev can continue chaining attacks.
• Turn toward the fence: Makhachev can use the cage for additional control.
• Give up a position to escape: Makhachev can potentially advance or attack a submission.
• Stand back up: Garry must immediately return to defending another entry.

The longer those sequences continue, the more difficult it becomes for the defensive fighter to maintain perfect technique.

Garry’s mental approach could matter as much as his technique

One of the more interesting aspects of Garry’s preparation is his decision to avoid the online criticism surrounding the fight.

The Irish contender has argued that social media creates a distorted version of reality and said his experiences away from the internet have been considerably more positive.

“Social media is a false reality.”

That mindset could be useful during a championship fight.

High-profile UFC bouts generate enormous amounts of outside noise. Fighters are constantly exposed to predictions, criticism, edited clips and arguments about their abilities. Ignoring that environment can help a fighter maintain focus on the tactical details that actually determine the outcome.

Garry’s challenge is therefore not just physical. He must remain disciplined if Makhachev begins to force him into uncomfortable positions.

Why the criticism of Garry has become part of the storyline

Garry has attracted considerable attention throughout his UFC career, both because of his fighting ability and because of his outspoken public persona.

That visibility has created a significant online following but also a strong group of critics. The upcoming championship opportunity gives both sides another reason to debate his credentials.

Garry’s response has been to separate online commentary from his real-world experiences.

That is an important distinction because social-media popularity is not necessarily an indicator of championship potential. The Octagon ultimately provides a much more objective test.

Against Makhachev, Garry will have the opportunity to answer questions that online arguments cannot settle.

Could Garry’s striking disrupt Makhachev’s approach?

Yes, and this is where the matchup becomes more complicated than a simple grappler-versus-striker prediction.

Makhachev has to enter striking range to initiate his wrestling. Every entry carries some risk, particularly against a long fighter capable of intercepting an opponent with straight attacks.

If Garry can make Makhachev hesitant about entering, the entire fight could slow down.

That is arguably Garry’s ideal scenario.

He does not necessarily need to dominate Makhachev in every striking exchange. He needs to make the champion pay enough for failed entries that Makhachev cannot comfortably pressure forward.

The problem is that Makhachev has spent years developing the ability to blend striking and wrestling rather than treating them as separate phases of a fight.

Three keys that could decide Ian Machado Garry vs Islam Makhachev

The under-three-round prediction is aggressive

Schaub’s prediction of a submission before the third round is certainly a strong one.

Even when a fighter has a significant grappling advantage, predicting an early submission requires several things to go right. Makhachev would need to establish control, prevent Garry from escaping and create a submission opportunity before the fight moves into the later rounds.

Garry’s movement could make that timeline more difficult.

If Garry spends the opening rounds successfully avoiding extended grappling sequences, Makhachev may have to adjust his strategy. The longer the fight remains competitive on the feet, the more opportunities Garry has to build confidence and force Makhachev to respect his striking.

That is why the first round could be especially revealing.

What a Garry victory would mean

If Garry defeats Makhachev, the result would immediately change the UFC welterweight landscape.

It would validate Garry’s ability to deal with elite-level grappling and establish him as a legitimate champion capable of solving one of the most difficult stylistic puzzles in mixed martial arts.

A victory would also make his movement and striking approach far more influential within the division.

Most importantly, it would demonstrate that Makhachev’s transition to welterweight can be challenged by a fighter who refuses to give him the positions he wants.

What an Makhachev victory would prove

If Makhachev submits Garry early, it would strengthen the argument that his grappling remains the defining advantage in the matchup.

It would also show that even a long, mobile striker can be neutralized if Makhachev consistently cuts off the cage and establishes his preferred positions.

Such a result would reinforce Makhachev’s status as one of the most difficult opponents in the UFC, particularly if he manages to finish the fight without absorbing significant damage.

Prediction: Makhachev has the clearest path, but Garry can make it competitive

From a stylistic perspective, Islam Makhachev appears to have the more reliable route to victory. His ability to combine pressure, wrestling and submission grappling directly targets the areas where Garry faces his greatest questions.

However, Schaub’s under-three-round prediction should not be treated as an inevitable outcome.

Garry’s movement gives him a legitimate opportunity to make the champion work for every entry. If he keeps the fight in the center of the Octagon and consistently forces Makhachev to reset, the contest could look very different from the grappling-heavy battle Schaub expects.

The key question is whether Garry can maintain that discipline for the entire fight.

Conclusion: UFC 330 could become a defining test for Garry

Ian Machado Garry vs Islam Makhachev is more than a championship fight between two talented athletes; it is a direct test of whether elite movement and distance control can neutralize world-class pressure grappling.

Brendan Schaub believes the answer will be no, predicting that Makhachev will submit Garry before the third round. His reasoning centers on the champion’s ability to close distance, work opponents against the cage and turn small positional advantages into submission opportunities.

Garry, meanwhile, appears focused on ignoring online criticism and concentrating on the fight itself. His best chance will likely involve maintaining distance, avoiding prolonged cage exchanges and making Makhachev repeatedly work to enter grappling range.

That makes the opening stages particularly important. If Makhachev establishes his wrestling early, Schaub’s prediction could begin to look increasingly realistic. If Garry repeatedly escapes and forces the champion to fight at range, the Irish contender could make the championship battle much more complicated.

Ultimately, UFC 330 will reveal whether Garry’s movement can solve Makhachev’s pressure or whether the champion’s grappling remains the decisive weapon.