Deloitte Forecasts 4.8% Growth in US Holiday Retail Sales for 2026

U.S. holiday retail sales are expected to grow faster during the 2026 shopping season, with Deloitte forecasting growth of up to 4.8% as rising disposable incomes support consumer spending despite continued pressure on household budgets.

The consulting firm expects sales during the November 2026 to January 2027 holiday period to increase between 4% and 4.8%, compared with 4.1% growth during the same period a year earlier. The forecast offers an important signal about the health of the U.S. consumer, which remains a critical driver of the world’s largest economy.

Deloitte Forecasts Up to 4.8% Growth in Holiday Retail Sales

Deloitte expects U.S. holiday retail sales to reach between $1.70 trillion and $1.71 trillion during the 2026 holiday season. That would represent an increase from approximately $1.63 trillion recorded during the comparable period a year earlier.

The forecast excludes sales from gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts dealers, focusing instead on the broader retail and e-commerce spending environment during the key holiday shopping period.

The projected acceleration is notable because American consumers continue to face higher costs in several areas of household spending. Rather than abandoning discretionary purchases altogether, shoppers are increasingly becoming selective about where and how they spend.

Why Holiday Spending Could Stay Strong

The strength of the 2026 holiday shopping season is closely linked to disposable personal income. Deloitte expects disposable personal income to rise between 4.5% and 5.2% during the holiday period.

Higher disposable income gives consumers more room to spend on gifts, entertainment, food, travel and other seasonal purchases. It also provides retailers with a potentially stronger demand environment going into the most important shopping period of the year.

However, stronger income does not mean consumers are spending without considering prices. Deloitte’s forecast suggests that shoppers are simultaneously trying to make holidays special while looking for ways to protect their budgets.

Consumers Are Spending, But They Are Shopping Smarter

Natalie Martini, vice chair at Deloitte, said consumers continue to place importance on making the holidays special for friends and families while making deliberate choices about spending.

This creates an interesting dynamic for retailers. Demand can remain healthy even when consumers become more price-conscious, but businesses may need to compete more aggressively through discounts, promotions, loyalty programmes and value-focused product offerings.

Shoppers across income groups are reportedly looking for deals, switching brands and comparing retailers to stretch their budgets. In other words, consumers may still open their wallets, but they are becoming more strategic about what goes into the shopping cart.

E-Commerce Expected to Outpace Overall Retail Growth

Online shopping is expected to be one of the strongest areas of the holiday season. Deloitte forecasts e-commerce sales growth of between 7.5% and 8.4% during the November 2026 to January 2027 period.

That would take online holiday sales to approximately $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion. By comparison, e-commerce sales were estimated at around $294 billion during the same period a year earlier.

The projected online growth rate is considerably higher than the overall retail sales growth forecast. This reinforces the continuing shift toward digital shopping and the importance of online channels for retailers seeking holiday demand.

Why Online Retail Could Gain More

Consumers can easily compare prices across multiple websites when shopping online. This is particularly attractive when shoppers are focused on value.

Online retailers can also use personalised recommendations, targeted promotions, loyalty programmes and flexible delivery options to compete for consumers who are actively searching for bargains.

For traditional retailers, the challenge is therefore not simply generating holiday traffic. They must increasingly create a seamless shopping experience across physical stores, websites and mobile platforms.

Value-Conscious Shoppers Are Reshaping Retail

One of the most important themes in Deloitte’s forecast is the changing behaviour of consumers. The U.S. retail market is not simply divided between people who are spending and people who are saving.

Instead, consumers are making more complicated choices. A shopper may cut spending on everyday household purchases but still spend on a particular holiday gift. Another may switch to a less expensive brand in one category while spending more on a product considered important.

This selective approach is forcing retailers to understand what consumers consider essential, desirable and worth paying extra for.

• Deal hunting: Consumers are increasingly comparing prices before making purchases.
• Brand switching: Shoppers may move to cheaper alternatives when prices rise.
• Selective splurging: Consumers can reduce spending in some categories while treating themselves in others.
• Cross-retailer shopping: Customers are willing to compare multiple retailers to find better value.
• Digital comparison: E-commerce makes price and product comparisons easier.

Higher Household Costs Remain a Risk

The positive retail outlook does not mean the U.S. consumer is completely free from financial pressure. Higher fuel and household costs remain important challenges for many families.

When essential expenses increase, consumers have less flexibility for discretionary purchases. Retailers therefore need to compete for a smaller share of available spending even when overall income is rising.

This makes the quality of holiday demand particularly important. A rise in sales driven primarily by heavy discounts can have a different impact on retailers than growth supported by stronger full-price demand.

What Deloitte’s Forecast Means for Retailers

For retailers, the forecast points to a potentially healthy holiday season but one that will require careful execution.

Businesses will need to balance inventory, pricing and promotions against unpredictable consumer behaviour. Holding too much inventory could lead to heavy markdowns after the holiday season, while insufficient stock could result in lost sales during peak shopping periods.

The expected increase in e-commerce also means retailers must prepare their digital infrastructure, fulfilment networks and delivery operations for higher online demand.

Competition Could Become More Intense

Because consumers are actively looking for value, retailers may face greater pressure to offer competitive prices. Discounts can attract customers, but excessive promotions can reduce profit margins.

The strongest retailers may therefore be those that combine competitive pricing with convenience, product availability, customer loyalty and a differentiated shopping experience.

2026 US Holiday Retail Sales Forecast at a Glance

Why the Holiday Season Matters to the US Economy

The holiday shopping period is more than a retail event. It provides an important indication of consumer confidence and household financial strength.

Consumer spending represents a major component of U.S. economic activity. Strong holiday sales can therefore support retailers, logistics companies, manufacturers, technology platforms and other businesses connected to consumer demand.

Conversely, a weak holiday season can signal that households are becoming more cautious because of higher living costs, weaker income growth or concerns about the broader economy.

Deloitte’s current forecast suggests that the U.S. consumer is entering the 2026 holiday season with enough spending power to support stronger sales growth than the previous year.

E-Commerce Growth Highlights a Structural Shift

The expected 7.5% to 8.4% growth in e-commerce is particularly significant because it is projected to substantially outpace overall retail growth.

This does not mean physical stores are becoming irrelevant. Instead, the retail market is increasingly becoming an integrated ecosystem in which consumers move between online and offline channels.

A customer might discover a product online, compare prices through a mobile device, visit a physical store and ultimately complete the purchase through an app. Retailers that can connect these experiences are better positioned to capture spending.

The Bigger Picture: A More Selective Consumer

The most important message from the Deloitte forecast may not be the headline 4.8% growth figure. It is the behaviour behind that growth.

Consumers appear willing to spend, but they are demanding value in return. That means headline sales growth alone may not tell the complete story about retail health.

Retailers and investors will also need to watch discount levels, profit margins, inventory, online conversion rates and customer acquisition costs. Strong sales combined with excessive promotions could produce a less impressive financial outcome than the headline numbers suggest.

What to Watch During the 2026 Holiday Shopping Season

Several indicators will help determine whether Deloitte’s optimistic forecast translates into strong results for individual retailers.

• Consumer income: Whether disposable income continues to support discretionary purchases.
• Fuel and household costs: Higher essential expenses could limit holiday budgets.
• Discounting: Aggressive promotions could boost sales but pressure retailer margins.
• E-commerce performance: Online sales are expected to remain a major growth engine.
• Brand switching: Greater movement between brands could favour retailers offering stronger value.
• Inventory levels: Retailers will need to match supply carefully with holiday demand.

Conclusion

U.S. holiday retail sales are expected to accelerate in 2026, with Deloitte forecasting growth of between 4% and 4.8%, compared with 4.1% a year earlier. Total holiday sales could reach $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion.

Rising disposable personal income is expected to support consumer demand, but shoppers are not abandoning their focus on value. They are comparing prices, switching brands and searching for deals while continuing to spend on gifts and seasonal experiences.

E-commerce is expected to remain the standout growth segment, with online holiday sales forecast to rise between 7.5% and 8.4% to as much as $318.9 billion.

The broader takeaway is that the U.S. consumer remains resilient but increasingly selective. For retailers, winning the 2026 holiday season may depend less on simply attracting shoppers and more on offering the right combination of price, convenience, product choice and customer experience.