As Diwali 2025 draws near, Dalal Street might not seem overly euphoric, yet seasoned investors see renewed hope. After months of volatility and fleeting highs, the Markets have found a steady rhythm. The Nifty 50 has been consolidating near the 24,000 mark after recovering impressively from its summer lows.
Despite the apparent slowdown, experts believe the market is taking a “healthy pause.” According to Choice Broking’s Samvat 2082 report, the Nifty’s consolidation near 24,000 signifies strength, not weakness — a base-building phase before the next major uptrend. “For long–term investors, this is the time to accumulate gradually,” the report suggests, projecting Nifty targets of 26,500–28,000 by Diwali 2026.
Banking Sector Leads the Diwali Rally
The Bank Nifty index has been the quiet outperformer. After breaking its previous resistance at 54,000, it has successfully retested the level as support and is now heading toward 56,500. Trading well above its 20-, 50-, and 200-week moving averages, the index displays a strong uptrend with a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows.
Experts suggest that the 53,500–54,000 zone offers attractive buying opportunities for investors looking to increase exposure to banking stocks. As long as the index remains above this support, analysts remain bullish, with medium-term targets of 60,000–62,500 by the next Diwali.
Top Diwali Stock Picks 2025
Choice Broking has shortlisted several technically strong stocks that may outperform during the next leg of the rally:
- Federal Bank (₹213) — Forming a solid base, likely to break above ₹220. Targets: ₹245–₹255. Buy opportunities on dips near ₹207.
- Cipla (₹1,545) — Creating an ascending triangle pattern; breakout above ₹1,580 could lift it to ₹1,770–₹1,850.
- Bharat Dynamics Ltd. (₹1,485) — Strong setup in defense segment; may trade between ₹1,700–₹1,785 in coming months.
- Ashok Leyland (₹135) — Completed a rounding bottom pattern. Sustained close above ₹140 could drive it toward ₹151–₹158.
- SAIL (₹129) — Forming a cup-and-handle pattern; breakout above ₹138 could push prices toward ₹147–₹153.
Each setup includes well-defined supports and stop-loss levels, providing clarity for disciplined investors.
Samvat 2082 Market Outlook: Resilience and Growth Ahead
According to Nuvama Wealth Research, resilience continues to define India’s equity landscape. Despite global uncertainty, the combination of policy stability and strong domestic inflows has kept the markets on firm ground. Mutual fund SIPs touched a record ₹2.5 lakh crore in the last year, offsetting foreign selling pressure.
Stable macro conditions — including low inflation, high forex reserves, and consistent political continuity — have reinforced investor confidence. Nuvama expects global rate cuts by FY26, likely to boost valuations and liquidity. The report highlights continued strength in credit growth, manufacturing recovery, and infrastructure expansion.
At about 19–20x forward earnings, valuations remain comfortably within long-term averages, maintaining a constructive sentiment across the market.
High-Conviction Samvat Picks
Bank of India has shifted from a “sell on rise” to a “buy on dip” strategy following three higher bottoms across 2022–2024, indicating a structural long-term reversal.
BEML maintains the momentum from its 18-year breakout in 2023, forming a potential cup-and-handle pattern that points to further upside.
Can Fin Homes continues to move within a rising channel since 2018, historically doubling from each lower channel point. After rebounding near ₹560 in February 2025, it appears ready for another leg up.
Graphite India recently broke out of a bullish inverted head-and-shoulders pattern and is testing trendline resistance at ₹650. Sustaining above that level could trigger a multi-year breakout.
Vedanta achieved a 15-year cup-and-handle breakout — a technical pattern often preceding multi-fold returns. With steady higher lows for five years, the stock’s long-term uptrend remains strong.
Key Sectors to Watch in 2025
Certain sectors are poised to lead the next leg of the market’s journey:
- Metals: Driven by India’s infrastructure push, China’s policy support, and a weaker dollar, global demand is surging once again.
- PSU Banks: Cleaner balance sheets, improved profitability, and lower NPAs continue to attract investor confidence.
- Large Caps: After a mid-cap rally phase, large caps are regaining focus thanks to robust fundamentals and fair valuations.
Thematic Opportunities for 2025–2026
According to Prescient Capital Partner Anubhav Mukerjee, investors should think thematically for the next Samvat cycle. He identifies several structural trends driving growth:
- EV Ecosystem: Auto component makers producing motors, controllers, and display units stand to gain from GST benefits and premiumization in India’s EV sector.
- Power & Transmission: Robust domestic and global demand from data centers and infrastructure projects is fueling capacity expansion.
- Chemicals: After years of Chinese price pressure, the specialty and performance chemical sectors are entering a multi-year recovery phase.
- Microfinance: A turnaround story supported by cleaner loan books and renewed growth momentum through FY26.
- Logistics: Industry consolidation, GST efficiencies, and rising e-commerce demand are driving a recovery in profitability.
Diwali 2025: Invest with Strategy, Not Impulse
Every Diwali, investors light diyas, open their trading apps, and buy symbolic stocks for luck during the Muhurat Trading session. But 2025 demands a more strategic approach. This festive season, building positions gradually — not chasing momentum — will likely create more sustainable wealth.
The real fortune this year will come from discipline, sector rotation, and faith in India’s long-term growth story. As experts suggest, this could be a year of silent compounding rather than loud fireworks.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations mentioned are those of respective analysts and brokerage firms. Investors are advised to consult certified financial advisors before making any investment decisions.
For breaking news and live news updates, like us on Facebook or follow us on Twitter and Instagram. Read more on Latest Personal Finance on thefoxdaily.com.
COMMENTS 0