2027 NFL Draft Order Projections: Top 10 Picks to Watch

The 2027 NFL Draft is still months away, but with the 2026 NFL season underway, teams are already beginning to shape their positions in the race for next year’s top prospects. As the regular season progresses, attention is turning to which franchises could secure early first-round selections and gain an opportunity to add some of the most talented players entering the league.

Which teams are projected to land picks in the top 10? Which franchises have the strongest chances of securing a top-five selection, and which could ultimately finish with the No. 1 overall pick? Although the current standings will continue to change, early projections offer an initial look at how the first round of the 2027 NFL Draft could unfold.

How the 2027 NFL Draft Order Projections Work

The projected draft order is based on ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), rather than the teams’ current records alone. The model simulates the remainder of the 2026 NFL season 10,000 times each week to estimate how the standings could look after all 17 regular-season games have been completed.

These simulations use factors such as team ratings and game locations to estimate the probability of different results. The projected draft order is then determined by the records teams are expected to finish with across the simulations, alongside each team’s average draft position.

This approach provides a forward-looking view of the draft race instead of simply ranking teams according to their current win-loss records. A team near the bottom of the standings today could improve significantly with a strong finish, while another franchise could slide down the projected order if it begins winning more games.

It is important to remember that these projections are estimates, not confirmed draft positions. Injuries, unexpected victories, losing streaks and changes in team performance can all influence the final order. The projections will continue to evolve throughout the 2026 season as new results become available.

Teams to Watch in the Race for the Top 10

The top 10 of the 2027 NFL Draft could offer valuable opportunities for franchises looking to strengthen their rosters with elite prospects. Teams projected to pick early may have access to highly regarded players at important positions, including quarterback, offensive line, defensive line and defensive back.

For rebuilding franchises, an early selection can be an important part of a longer-term strategy. A high draft pick can provide an opportunity to add a potential cornerstone player, address a major roster weakness or acquire a prospect who could contribute immediately.

However, draft position alone does not guarantee success. Teams must evaluate prospects carefully, consider their existing roster needs and determine which players best fit their systems. Even a high selection requires effective scouting, player development and sound roster management to deliver lasting results.

Who Could Secure the No. 1 Overall Pick?

The battle for the No. 1 overall selection is one of the most closely followed parts of the NFL Draft process. The team that finishes with the league’s worst regular-season record generally receives the first pick, subject to the NFL’s draft-order rules and any relevant tiebreakers.

ESPN’s FPI projections estimate each team’s chances of finishing in the position to select first. These probabilities are recalculated as the season develops, meaning the team with the highest projected chance can change from week to week.

A team that struggles early may remain in contention for the top selection, but a late-season improvement can quickly alter its outlook. Similarly, a franchise that begins the season poorly could move away from the top of the draft order by putting together a series of victories.

The possibility of securing the first pick can also influence how fans view the remainder of the season. While teams are focused on winning games and improving their performance, supporters of struggling franchises may also pay close attention to how each result affects their potential draft position.

Understanding the Top-Five and Top-10 Draft Chances

In addition to projecting the full first-round order, the FPI model estimates each team’s chances of receiving a top-five or top-10 pick. These probabilities provide a broader picture of the draft race and help distinguish between teams likely to remain near the top of the order and those whose final positions are less certain.

A strong probability of landing in the top five suggests that a team is projected to finish near the bottom of the standings across a significant number of simulations. A top-10 projection indicates a wider range of possible outcomes, including teams that could finish outside the very highest selections but still receive an early first-round pick.

These estimates can be particularly useful when several teams have similar records or face difficult schedules. However, the probabilities should not be interpreted as guarantees. A team with a high chance of picking early could still finish the season with a substantially better record than expected.

Traded First-Round Picks Affecting the 2027 NFL Draft

The first-round draft order is also affected by trades completed before and during the season. When a franchise trades away its original first-round selection, another team gains the right to make that pick, subject to the terms of the agreement.

Several first-round selections identified in the supplied projections have already changed hands through major player trades. These transactions mean that the team holding a pick may differ from the franchise whose regular-season record determines its position in the draft order.

• Green Bay Packers’ selection: The Packers’ first-round pick was traded to the Dallas Cowboys as part of the Micah Parsons trade.
• Indianapolis Colts’ selection: The Colts’ first-round pick was traded to the New York Jets in the Sauce Gardner trade.
• Los Angeles Rams’ selection: The Rams’ first-round pick was traded to the Cleveland Browns in the Myles Garrett trade.
• Dallas Cowboys’ selection: The better of Dallas’ two selections, based on either its own pick or the Packers’ original pick, was traded to the Jets in the Quinnen Williams trade.

These trades demonstrate why it is important to distinguish between a team’s projected draft position and the franchise that ultimately owns the selection. A team may benefit from another club’s poor season if it holds that club’s pick, while the original owner could lose access to a valuable early selection.

Why Draft Position Matters for NFL Franchises

Draft position can have a significant effect on a team’s ability to add young talent. Early selections generally provide access to a wider range of highly rated prospects, although the value of any particular pick depends on the available players and each team’s evaluation process.

Franchises selecting near the top of the first round may focus on securing a quarterback, strengthening their offensive line or adding an impact defender. Others may consider trading down to accumulate additional selections, particularly if several prospects have similar grades on their draft boards.

Teams holding multiple first-round picks may also have greater flexibility when planning their roster rebuilds. Those selections can be used to address several needs in one draft or serve as valuable assets in negotiations for established players.

Nevertheless, the most effective draft strategy depends on each team’s circumstances. A franchise with a young quarterback may prioritise protection and defensive support, while another team may view the position as its most pressing need. Draft order provides the starting point, but scouting and decision-making ultimately determine how teams use their opportunities.

How the 2027 Draft Projections Could Change

The projected first-round order will be updated throughout the 2026 NFL season as teams play additional games. Each result changes the standings and can influence the model’s expectations for the remaining schedule.

Head-to-head matchups between struggling teams may be especially important because a victory for one franchise also gives a direct competitor a loss. Meanwhile, teams that exceed expectations could move out of the projected top 10, creating opportunities for other franchises to rise in the order.

Injuries, changes in performance and the difficulty of the remaining schedule can also influence the simulations. Because the FPI runs thousands of possible season outcomes, its projections reflect a range of scenarios rather than a single predicted finish.

Conclusion

The 2027 NFL Draft remains months away, but ESPN’s Football Power Index is already offering projections for the first-round order, including each team’s chances of landing a top-five selection, a top-10 pick or the No. 1 overall choice.

The projections are based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the 2026 season and will change as results come in. Trades involving first-round picks add another layer to the picture, with several selections now controlled by teams other than their original owners.

For now, the projected draft order provides an early look at which franchises could have the best opportunities to add elite prospects next April. The final positions, however, will depend on how teams perform over the remainder of the regular season and how the draft selections are ultimately allocated.