Tarik Skubal Contract: Mets and Dodgers Eye MLB Star

Tarik Skubal’s next contract could become one of the biggest stories of the MLB offseason, with the star pitcher facing a crucial decision before the current collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1. MLB insider Mark Feinsand believes Scott Boras could use the previous lockout as a guide, when two of his high-profile clients, Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, secured major contracts with the Texas Rangers before negotiations between owners and players came to a halt.

With a potential work stoppage expected to begin on December 2, teams interested in Skubal must decide whether to pursue a deal under the current rules or wait for the next collective bargaining agreement. The uncertainty could make the coming weeks especially important for the Detroit Tigers ace and his representatives.

Corey Seager and Marcus Semien Set a Pre-Lockout Example

Scott Boras has a reputation for allowing the free-agent market to develop before his most prominent clients make their decisions. However, the 2021-22 MLB lockout showed that major Boras clients can also complete blockbuster agreements before a labour stoppage.

Five years ago, Seager and Semien both signed with the Texas Rangers before the lockout began. Seager agreed to a 10-year contract worth $325 million, while Semien secured a seven-year deal valued at $175 million.

The agreements came during an extraordinary period of spending. On December 1, 2021, MLB clubs committed a combined $1.4 billion in player salaries, setting a one-day record.

Feinsand referred to those deals during an appearance on MLB Tonight, explaining why Skubal’s situation could follow a similar pattern if the right offer becomes available.

“Well, we know historically that Scott Boras’s big clients are not usually in a rush to sign. But again, I turn back to that history we were talking about before. Corey Seager signed his $325 million dollar deal with the Rangers. He was a Scott Boras client.”

Feinsand also pointed to Semien’s agreement as another example of a Boras client completing a major deal before the previous lockout.

“Marcus Semien, same thing, and they signed before the lockout five years ago. So, I don’t think it’s gonna be a situation where Skubal settles for a deal prior to the lockout, but if the deal that he’s looking for is there, it would not surprise me.”

His assessment suggests that Skubal is unlikely to accept a contract simply because the deadline is approaching. However, if a team meets the financial expectations set by Boras, an agreement before December 1 would remain possible.

Why the December 1 Deadline Matters for Skubal

The current collective bargaining agreement is scheduled to expire on December 1, with MLB owners expected to lock out the players the following day. The previous lockout began in December 2021 and continued until March 2022, disrupting the offseason and delaying the start of spring training.

A contract completed before the deadline would be negotiated under the existing labour rules. Waiting could expose Skubal and interested teams to a period in which transactions are frozen, followed by whatever changes emerge from the next collective bargaining agreement.

That uncertainty creates pressure on both sides. Teams may prefer to complete a deal while the current rules remain in place, while Boras has an incentive to assess the market and pursue the contract he believes his client deserves.

Skubal is widely viewed as the most consequential starting pitcher available this winter. His performance and position in the market have created expectations of a contract that could reset the financial standard for pitchers.

Skubal Could Challenge the Record for a Pitcher

Feinsand has reported that Skubal’s next contract could exceed Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12-year, $325 million agreement, currently the largest contract ever signed by a pitcher.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan has also indicated that the expectation is for Skubal to sign before the lockout. Passan believes the deal could be worth more than $300 million, with the possibility of crossing the $400 million mark.

Such a contract would represent a major financial commitment to a starting pitcher. The final value will depend on the level of competition among interested clubs, the length of the agreement and the terms Boras can secure for his client.

With several teams reportedly monitoring the situation, the possibility of a record-breaking offer could make Skubal one of the most closely watched players in the offseason.

New York Mets Emerge as a Potential Favourite

The New York Mets have also entered the conversation as a potential destination for Skubal. ESPN’s Jorge Castillo identified the Mets as favourites during an appearance on the Baseball Tonight podcast with Buster Olney.

Castillo compared the situation with the Mets’ successful pursuit of Juan Soto, another Boras client, arguing that owner Steve Cohen could play a decisive role if the franchise makes Skubal a priority.

“If Steve Cohen wants Skubal, he will sign Skubal,” Jorge Castillo said. “Skubal is another Scott Boras client, just like Juan Soto. The Yankees went up to 16 years, $760 million, and the Mets went a little higher over 15 years. And I think that will happen in this situation.”

The Soto negotiations provide a recent example of the Mets competing aggressively for a major Boras client. The New York Yankees offered Soto a 16-year contract worth $760 million, while the Mets secured his services with a 15-year agreement valued at $765 million.

Soto was subsequently introduced at Citi Field in December. Castillo believes a similar willingness to outbid competing teams could become relevant if Cohen decides to pursue Skubal with the same determination.

David Stearns’ Approach Could Be a Key Factor

Despite the Mets’ financial resources, there is another factor that could influence their pursuit: the approach of president of baseball operations David Stearns.

Stearns has little history of handing out long-term contracts to starting pitchers. His largest such commitment was a three-year, $75 million agreement with Sean Manaea, which has not developed as hoped.

That history raises questions about whether the Mets’ baseball operations department would be comfortable committing a much longer and more expensive deal to Skubal. Cohen’s willingness to spend could make the Mets a serious contender, but the final decision would also involve the organisation’s assessment of the pitcher’s value and long-term risk.

The difference between the owner’s financial capacity and the front office’s contract philosophy could therefore become an important part of the negotiations.

Dodgers Also Viewed as a Possible Destination

While Castillo highlighted the Mets, Alden Gonzalez offered a different perspective during the same podcast discussion. He said he believed Skubal would return to the Los Angeles Dodgers if all things were equal.

Gonzalez pointed to Skubal’s comfort with the Dodgers’ coaching staff and teammates as reasons the club could appeal to the pitcher. Familiarity with the organisation could be a factor in his decision, although Boras is still expected to pursue a record-setting contract regardless of the preferred destination.

The Dodgers have the financial resources and competitive ambitions to remain part of the conversation. Their interest, however, would have to align with the contract expectations surrounding one of the most valuable pitchers available.

Six Teams Reportedly Monitoring the Situation

Feinsand’s list of potential suitors includes six teams: the Los Angeles Dodgers, Detroit Tigers, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies.

The Tigers are particularly relevant because Skubal has been their leading pitcher. Retaining him would be a major decision for the organisation, especially with several financially capable teams potentially competing for his services.

The Cubs are also reportedly interested. Passan has said Chicago badly wants Skubal but remains uncertain about whether the club would be willing to match the expected price.

The Blue Jays and Phillies are among the other teams included in Feinsand’s list, giving Boras several potential negotiating partners as the offseason develops.

What Happens Next in Tarik Skubal’s Contract Talks?

Skubal’s contract timeline will depend on how quickly interested teams make their intentions clear and whether any club is prepared to meet Boras’ financial expectations before December 1.

Feinsand’s comments indicate that the previous lockout offers a useful example: even clients known for taking their time can sign before a work stoppage when the right offer is available. Seager and Semien demonstrated that possibility in 2021.

However, Skubal is not expected to accept a deal merely to avoid the lockout. With reports suggesting that his next contract could exceed $300 million and potentially reach beyond $400 million, negotiations may require significant financial commitment from whichever team emerges as the leading contender.

The Mets, Dodgers, Tigers, Cubs, Blue Jays and Phillies are all part of the reported picture. Whether Skubal signs before the deadline or waits for the next labour agreement remains uncertain, but the approaching lockout could make this one of the defining decisions of the MLB offseason.