Could Jürgen Klopp Have Fixed Manchester United?

Manchester United’s repeated managerial changes have become a familiar part of the club’s recent history. Every season brings fresh expectations that a new coach might finally restore the team to its former position among English football’s leading sides. Yet, more than a decade after Sir Alex Ferguson’s departure, the Premier League title remains out of reach.

The latest managerial uncertainty raises a bigger question: is the problem really the person in the dugout, or does Manchester United have deeper structural issues that even an exceptional coach would struggle to overcome? A hypothetical appointment of Jürgen Klopp in 2013 offers one way to examine that question.

Klopp transformed Borussia Dortmund and Liverpool into major forces in European football. His ability to improve teams beyond what their resources might suggest makes him an interesting candidate for this exercise. However, the argument is that even his arrival at Old Trafford might not have been enough to bring the Premier League trophy back to Manchester United.

Manchester United’s recurring managerial changes

The arrival of the season of managerial dismissals has once again placed Manchester United’s head coach under scrutiny. The club has repeatedly turned to a new manager in the hope that a change in leadership will solve its continuing problems.

Ruben Amorim lost his job last January, while Erik ten Hag was dismissed two years ago, shortly before Halloween. Ole Gunnar Solskjær was sacked just days before Thanksgiving, and José Mourinho left his position a little more than a week before Christmas.

Michael Carrick now appears to be facing a similar situation. Manchester United are described as being clear of the relegation zone only on goal difference. Despite their comeback against AS Roma in the Champions League, concerns remain about the team’s overall performances. Before Tuesday’s victory, Carrick appeared close to tears at the end of every match.

The club’s difficulties are particularly striking because of its expectations and financial resources. This is the 14th season since Manchester United last won the Premier League. The next manager would become the ninth coach attempting to achieve something no United manager since Ferguson has managed: consistently meeting the expectations attached to one of the richest sporting clubs in the world.

With so many managers having failed to deliver sustained success, the question becomes whether the club has simply struggled to identify the right coach or whether its problems extend far beyond the manager.

How much difference can a great manager make?

To understand the potential value of a manager, the analysis first considers how much individual players contribute to a successful team’s results. Arsenal won the Premier League last season with 85 points. If all 11 players contributed equally and there were no substitutions, each player would account for approximately 7.7 points of that total.

However, removing a player from a team does not mean the club would automatically lose that player’s entire contribution. Another footballer would take their place and contribute something to the team’s performance. The relevant comparison is therefore the difference between the player being removed and the replacement coming into the side.

West Ham were relegated with 39 points. Using the same simplified approach, each player in that team would account for slightly more than 3.5 points. That creates an estimated difference of approximately five points between an average Arsenal player and a relegation-level player.

This calculation is not a precise measurement of individual performance. Players have different responsibilities, some positions carry greater importance, and not everyone plays the same number of minutes. For example, goalkeeper David Raya played 97.3% of Arsenal’s league minutes, while Declan Rice led the team’s outfield players with 90.5%.

Nevertheless, the framework provides a useful benchmark. The best players at leading clubs might be worth around seven points more than an average relegation-level player. Generational superstars could potentially add around 10 points of value under this approach.

Are managers as valuable as the best players?

The analysis applies a similar framework to managers rather than treating the debate over whether coaches matter as a simple yes-or-no argument.

Ian Graham, Liverpool’s former director of research, offered a useful comparison in his book, How to Win the Premier League. He suggested that a manager can bring approximately the same value as a good player. The comparison also reflects the salaries earned by elite managers, who can receive wages similar to those of top footballers.

That raises another question: who was the best manager Manchester United could have appointed during the 14 seasons following Ferguson’s departure?

Two names stand out in the discussion: Pep Guardiola and Jürgen Klopp. Both have established records of building successful teams, and both have received strong recognition in analyses of managerial performance.

A 2025 study presented at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference examined team performances across Europe’s Big Five leagues between 2017 and 2024. It assessed managers according to how much their teams exceeded or fell below expectations based on the talent available in their squads.

Guardiola and Klopp topped the study’s rankings, with a significant gap separating them from the next group of managers. Their performances suggested that both coaches were particularly effective at getting more from their teams than the underlying squad expectations indicated.

Why Klopp is the choice for this hypothetical

Although Guardiola’s influence on modern football is widely recognised, the analysis chooses Klopp for the Manchester United hypothetical. The discussion points to the 114 charges against Manchester City under Guardiola as a reason to view the club’s achievements with greater scrutiny.

The argument is not that Guardiola’s coaching influence should be dismissed. Instead, it questions how much of Manchester City’s performance advantage can confidently be attributed to his managerial work when the club’s spending and the circumstances surrounding its financial figures are also part of the discussion.

Klopp offers a different example. He took Borussia Dortmund and Liverpool, neither of which was the richest club in its domestic league, and turned them into some of the strongest teams in the world. He also maintained a high level of performance over several seasons at both clubs.

There is another point supporting Klopp’s case: both Dortmund and Liverpool appeared to decline after his departure. That does not prove that every aspect of their success came from the manager, but it highlights the influence he had on the teams he built.

A manager’s job is not simply to win with the players available. It is also to make the team perform beyond what its resources might normally allow and sustain that improvement while the squad changes. At the highest level, Klopp demonstrated that ability particularly well.

Could Klopp have succeeded at Manchester United in 2013?

The central hypothetical is straightforward: what might have happened if Manchester United had appointed Klopp in 2013 instead of David Moyes?

Such a decision would have created several possible consequences elsewhere in football. It could have changed the direction of German football, Liverpool’s development and the careers of players such as Mohamed Salah. However, the focus here is on what the appointment might have meant for Manchester United.

Liverpool benefited from hiring Klopp, but Klopp also benefited from working within a club structure that supported his ideas. Liverpool’s recruitment operation helped identify players who suited the team’s needs. One example was the decision to bring in Mohamed Salah instead of Julian Brandt.

The argument is that neither Klopp nor Liverpool’s front office could have achieved the same results independently. Their success came from the combination of strong coaching and an organisation capable of identifying and recruiting suitable players.

Borussia Dortmund provides another example. The club had established strengths in youth development and identifying emerging talent. Klopp was able to work with players whose qualities suited his high-pressing approach, including Robert Lewandowski, Mats Hummels, Marco Reus and İlkay Gündoğan.

These examples underline an important point: a successful manager needs more than tactical ability. Recruitment, player development and the wider football operation all influence whether a team can maintain its progress.

Manchester United’s deeper organisational problems

Manchester United’s recent record suggests that its difficulties cannot be explained solely by managerial appointments. The club has repeatedly underperformed relative to its financial resources and its position among the Premier League’s wealthiest teams.

Since 2013, United have finished at or above their relative Premier League revenue ranking only once, which was last season. That record points towards problems in how the club has built and managed its football teams.

If the manager were the only issue, the club would presumably be doing most other things correctly. Repeatedly changing coaches would then be a reasonable way to address the problem. However, the continued failure to establish long-term success suggests that the wider environment is also contributing to the results.

The inability to identify and retain a successful long-term manager may therefore be a symptom rather than the original cause. Recruitment decisions, squad construction and the organisation’s overall approach to football have all been questioned by the club’s sustained underperformance.

Under those circumstances, even Klopp would have faced significant limitations. He would have needed to operate within Manchester United’s existing structure rather than automatically receiving the recruitment support and organisational stability that helped him succeed at Liverpool and Dortmund.

The comparison with Liverpool’s decision to sign Salah instead of Brandt illustrates the potential difference. At United, Klopp might repeatedly have found himself working with players who were not the ideal fit for his plans.

What if Klopp had added 10 points every season?

To explore the strongest possible version of the hypothetical, the analysis gives Klopp an additional 10 points in every Manchester United league season from 2013-14 onwards.

This is deliberately an extreme assumption. Manchester United have not consistently hired genuinely poor managers, and Klopp himself would not claim to be worth as much as Lionel Messi. Nevertheless, treating his influence as equivalent to that of a once-in-a-generation superstar helps demonstrate the limits of what one manager could achieve.

The exercise also simplifies several other factors. It does not fully account for the Manchester City situation, the points other teams might have lost, changes in spending power or the possibility that improved performances would have influenced future recruitment. The purpose is to illustrate the potential impact of an exceptional manager, not to present an exact alternative history.

Manchester United’s actual results compared with the Klopp scenario

The following table compares Manchester United’s actual Premier League points and finishing positions with the hypothetical outcome if Klopp had added 10 points to the team’s total every season.

Under this scenario, Manchester United would have averaged 76 points per season instead of 66. Their average league finishing position would have improved from 5.3 to 3.8.

The club would also have finished in the top four 10 times rather than six. Those results could have created more opportunities for deeper Champions League campaigns, particularly given United’s history of reaching three finals in four seasons between 2008 and 2011.

Even with an additional 10 points every season, however, the table does not show Manchester United winning the Premier League. The hypothetical improves their league position and consistency, but it does not deliver the one achievement that has remained missing since Ferguson left.

Would the right manager have been enough?

The Klopp scenario suggests that appointing an exceptional manager could have made Manchester United considerably more competitive. Better league finishes, more regular top-four positions and potentially stronger European campaigns would have represented meaningful progress.

But the exercise also highlights the limits of managerial influence. Even 13 consecutive seasons of extraordinary coaching would not necessarily have solved the club’s problems or brought the Premier League title back to Old Trafford.

Klopp’s success at Liverpool and Borussia Dortmund was supported by organisations capable of helping him build teams suited to his methods. Manchester United’s continuing struggles suggest that its problems extend beyond the touchline.

The central question, therefore, is not simply whether Manchester United can find another great manager. It is whether the club can create the conditions in which a great manager can succeed over the long term. Without improvements to the wider football operation, changing the person in charge may continue to produce only temporary hope.

Even in the most optimistic version of the Klopp hypothetical, Manchester United would still be waiting for a Premier League title after Ferguson. That is the clearest indication that the club’s long-term difficulties cannot be solved by a managerial appointment alone.