The 2026 FIFA World Cup has finally arrived, bringing together 48 nations, hundreds of elite players, and billions of viewers for what promises to be one of the most unpredictable tournaments in football history. While fans and pundits continue debating potential champions, former England international Paul Merson has offered his own ranking of the five teams he believes have the strongest chance of lifting the trophy.
Interestingly, Merson’s list is dominated by European nations despite the tournament being played across North America. His reasoning goes beyond individual talent. Factors such as climate conditions, travel schedules, squad harmony, tactical flexibility, and experience in high-pressure matches all play a major role in his assessment.
With long-distance travel, extreme weather variations, and an expanded tournament format creating new challenges, the road to becoming world champions may be tougher than ever before.
Why the 2026 FIFA World Cup Could Be Different From Any Previous Edition
Before ranking his favorites, Merson highlighted several unique challenges that could influence results throughout the tournament.
Unlike previous World Cups hosted within a single country, the 2026 edition spans multiple host nations and cities separated by thousands of miles. Teams will face extensive travel demands, varying climates, and logistical complications that could impact recovery and performance.
Weather may also become a decisive factor. High temperatures, humidity, and possible storm-related disruptions could affect match preparation and player fitness.
For the first time in World Cup history, managing travel and recovery could become almost as important as tactical preparation.
| Potential Challenge | Impact on Teams |
|---|---|
| Long-distance travel | Increased fatigue and recovery demands |
| Humidity | Physical exhaustion and slower tempo |
| Weather disruptions | Scheduling uncertainty |
| Expanded format | More matches and squad rotation needs |
| Multiple host cities | Complex tournament logistics |
These factors help explain why Merson prioritized teams with deep squads and established systems.
#5 England: Talent Is There, But Questions Remain
England begin Merson’s rankings in fifth place.
The Three Lions enter the tournament under Thomas Tuchel, whose appointment has generated excitement among supporters hoping to end decades of World Cup disappointment.
Merson praised Tuchel for selecting players suited to his tactical vision rather than simply choosing the most famous names available.
That approach could provide England with greater balance and tactical clarity during the tournament.
England’s Biggest Strengths
- Strong squad depth
- World-class attacking options
- Experienced players in key positions
- Elite-level coaching
However, Merson remains cautious due to England’s historical struggles against elite opposition.
Over several generations, England have repeatedly fallen short when facing football’s biggest powers in knockout football. Until they consistently overcome that obstacle, skepticism will remain.
#4 Portugal: A Team Defined by Midfield Excellence
Portugal occupy fourth position in Merson’s rankings.
While much attention naturally focuses on cristiano Ronaldo, Merson believes the nation’s true strength lies elsewhere.
Portugal arguably possess one of the strongest midfields at the tournament.
| Player | Key Strength |
|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes | Creativity and leadership |
| Vitinha | Ball retention and control |
| Joao Neves | Energy and defensive work |
Modern tournament football often rewards teams capable of controlling possession, dictating tempo, and limiting opposition opportunities.
Portugal possess all three qualities.
The biggest question concerns Ronaldo’s role. At 41 years old, the legendary forward remains one of football’s most iconic figures, but balancing sentiment with tactical efficiency will be one of Roberto Martinez’s toughest decisions.
If Portugal find the right formula, they have enough quality to challenge any nation.
#3 Argentina: Can the Defending Champions Repeat History?
Argentina arrive at the tournament carrying the pressure of defending their world title.
While Merson acknowledges their quality, he believes age could become a significant factor.
The central focus naturally remains Lionel Messi.
The Argentine icon remains capable of producing moments of brilliance, but four years have passed since his World Cup triumph in Qatar. Maintaining the same level of influence throughout another demanding tournament presents a difficult challenge.
Yet dismissing Argentina would be dangerous.
Championship-winning teams often possess something statistics cannot fully capture: belief. Argentina’s squad understands what it takes to win football’s biggest prize, and that experience could prove invaluable during tense knockout matches.
Why Argentina Remain Dangerous
- Winning mentality
- Experienced core group
- Tactical cohesion
- Proven tournament performers
If Messi continues to deliver decisive moments, Argentina could once again make a deep run.
#2 France: The Most Explosive Attack in World Football?
France narrowly miss out on Merson’s top spot but remain one of the strongest contenders.
According to the former Arsenal midfielder, France’s attacking firepower is unmatched.
Very few teams possess the ability to score goals from as many different sources as Les Bleus.
Opponents cannot simply focus on stopping one player because danger exists throughout the squad.
France’s Key Advantages
- Exceptional squad depth
- Elite attacking talent
- Tournament experience
- Established leadership under Didier Deschamps
The return of N’Golo Kante also adds valuable experience and balance to the midfield.
France have reached two of the last two World Cup finals and remain one of the most consistent international teams of the modern era.
With stars capable of changing games in an instant, France enter the tournament knowing many rivals view them as the team to beat.
#1 Spain: Merson’s Choice to Win the 2026 FIFA World Cup
At the top of Merson’s rankings sits Spain.
The former England international believes Spain possess the one quality that separates champions from contenders: the X-factor.
While squad depth and tactical systems matter, major tournaments are often decided by moments of individual brilliance.
Spain have no shortage of players capable of producing those moments.
More importantly, they possess a playing style perfectly suited to tournament football.
Why Spain Are Merson’s Favorites
- Outstanding ball possession
- Technical superiority
- Tournament-winning experience
- Young stars combined with experienced leaders
- Ability to control matches
Possession becomes even more valuable in demanding weather conditions because it reduces physical strain and forces opponents to expend energy chasing the ball.
Spain excel in this area better than almost any national team.
The Lamine Yamal Factor
One concern highlighted by Merson involves Spain’s attacking efficiency.
While the squad creates plenty of opportunities, questions remain about whether they possess a traditional elite goal scorer capable of delivering consistently throughout the tournament.
The condition and form of young superstar Lamine Yamal could therefore become crucial.
His creativity, unpredictability, and ability to break defensive lines add a dimension few players can replicate.
If Yamal performs at his highest level, Spain’s chances of lifting the trophy increase dramatically.
Comparing Merson’s Top Five Favorites
| Rank | Nation | Biggest Strength |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | Ball control and tactical identity |
| 2 | France | Elite attacking depth |
| 3 | Argentina | Winning mentality |
| 4 | Portugal | World-class midfield |
| 5 | England | Individual talent and coaching |
A Notable Omission: Why Brazil Missed the List
Perhaps the biggest surprise in Merson’s rankings is the absence of Brazil.
Historically the most successful nation in World Cup history, Brazil possess immense talent and remain capable of defeating any opponent.
However, Merson believes recent performances have not provided enough evidence to justify placing them among the tournament’s leading favorites.
That does not mean Brazil cannot surprise people.
In fact, their absence from the spotlight may reduce pressure and allow them to operate as dangerous outsiders.
Prediction: Who Has the Best Chance of Winning?
Based on current form, squad balance, and tournament experience, Spain and France appear slightly ahead of the chasing pack.
Spain’s ability to dominate possession could prove particularly valuable in the unique conditions of the 2026 World Cup, while France possess enough attacking quality to overwhelm virtually any opponent.
Argentina, Portugal, and England remain genuine contenders, but each enters the tournament with specific questions that must be answered during the coming weeks.
The margins between success and failure at this level are incredibly small, making this one of the most open World Cups in recent memory.
Conclusion
Paul Merson’s ranking of the top five favorites for the 2026 FIFA World Cup provides a fascinating snapshot of how experts view the tournament landscape ahead of kickoff. Spain lead his list thanks to their technical excellence and ability to control matches, while France remain close behind because of their extraordinary attacking depth.
Argentina continue their title defense with Lionel Messi still leading the way, Portugal boast one of the strongest midfields in world football, and England hope Thomas Tuchel can finally guide the nation beyond its historical limitations.
With travel challenges, weather conditions, and an expanded tournament format creating additional uncertainty, predicting the eventual champion is far from straightforward. However, if Merson’s assessment proves correct, Spain could be the nation celebrating on football’s biggest stage when the tournament reaches its dramatic conclusion.
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