Metals Outlook: US Payrolls and Tech Earnings in Focus

Global commodity markets are entering a crucial week as investors prepare for the US employment report, technology earnings, central bank commentary and the November 3 midterm elections. Precious and base metals have come under pressure from a broad sell-off across financial markets, while Crude Oil has continued to climb towards six-month highs amid escalating geopolitical concerns involving Iran and the Gulf region.

Concerns over the returns from artificial intelligence (AI) investments triggered a sharp decline in technology stocks during the week ended October 30. The resulting reduction in risk exposure spread across asset classes, weighing on the dollar and metals. Crude oil moved in the opposite direction as traders priced in the possibility of disruptions to regional energy supplies.

The coming week’s economic and political developments could influence expectations for US monetary policy, the dollar’s direction and demand for commodities. Friday’s US employment report will be particularly important because the Federal Reserve has emphasised that future interest-rate decisions will depend on incoming economic data.

AI Spending Concerns Trigger Broad Market Sell-Off

Global financial markets faced selling pressure as investors questioned whether major technology companies would generate sufficient returns from their substantial AI-related capital expenditure. Disappointing technology earnings and uncertainty over future spending encouraged investors to reduce exposure to riskier assets.

Wall Street ended the week lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 declined approximately 1% over the week, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq fell around 2.4%. The Nasdaq also remained nearly 8% below its October 6 peak.

The technology sell-off had consequences beyond equity markets. Investors reduced positions across several asset classes, including precious metals, as concerns about losses and liquidity encouraged broader deleveraging.

For commodity markets, the uncertainty surrounding AI investment has created two important risks. Precious metals have faced selling pressure as investors liquidate positions, while industrial metals have come under pressure because of concerns about future technology-related investment and economic demand.

Dollar and Federal Reserve Outlook Remain in Focus

The US dollar index closed with modest gains during the week but remained below the 102 level. Stronger-than-expected US gross domestic product growth, elevated oil prices and a hotter inflation reading kept the possibility of another Federal Reserve rate increase this year in focus.

However, gains in the Japanese yen and euro, together with lower US Treasury yields, limited the dollar’s advance. The mixed performance reflects uncertainty over the direction of monetary policy as investors assess competing signals from economic growth, inflation and financial markets.

The Federal Open Market Committee’s 10–2 vote also highlighted divisions among policymakers. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s indication that future decisions would depend on incoming data has increased the importance of upcoming economic releases.

Markets will therefore pay close attention to Federal Reserve speeches and economic indicators for clues about the possibility of a December rate increase. A stronger dollar and expectations of tighter monetary policy could create additional headwinds for gold and silver, which do not offer interest income.

Gold Falls to Lowest Level Since October 2025

Precious metals were among the assets affected by the recent market-wide deleveraging. Spot gold declined approximately 3% during the week to close at around $3,875 an ounce, its lowest level since October 2025.

The metal is now roughly 30% below its January record of $5,595 an ounce. The decline reflects a combination of factors, including concerns about AI-related investment, technology-stock losses and the possibility that investors are selling precious metals to cover losses elsewhere in their portfolios.

Gold also faced pressure from elevated oil prices. Higher energy costs can reinforce inflation concerns and increase expectations that central banks may need to maintain restrictive monetary policies for longer.

On a monthly basis, gold declined around 7% in October. The weakness suggests that the metal’s performance is being influenced not only by traditional safe-haven demand but also by liquidity conditions and changing expectations about interest rates.

Silver Underperforms Gold as Industrial Demand Concerns Grow

Silver experienced a sharper correction than gold, reflecting its additional exposure to industrial demand. The metal fell around 9% during the week to approximately $49 an ounce, breaking below the $50 level for the first time in 11 months.

Silver recorded a monthly decline of approximately 19%, making it one of the weaker performers among major metals during October. Its greater sensitivity to economic activity and industrial consumption has made it vulnerable to concerns about slower growth and uncertainty surrounding technology investment.

The gold-to-silver ratio climbed to approximately 79, its highest level in 11 months. A rising ratio indicates that gold is outperforming silver, reflecting the latter’s relatively weaker price performance.

The combination of industrial-demand concerns, elevated oil prices and expectations of tighter monetary policy has reinforced pressure on silver. Investors will look for signs of stabilisation in industrial demand and broader financial markets before assessing whether the recent decline can reverse.

Gold and Silver Rates in Mumbai on October 31

According to the supplied market figures, gold and silver prices in Mumbai on Saturday, October 31, 2026, were as follows:

Gold Rate

• 24-carat gold: Rs 1,37,720 per 10 grams.
• 22-carat gold: Rs 1,26,150 per 10 grams.

Silver Rate

• Silver: Rs 1,790 per 10 grams.
• Silver: Rs 1,79,037 per kilogram.

Silver Technical Outlook Remains Bearish

Silver’s recent price movement indicates that its bearish trend has resumed following a brief four-session consolidation. The metal has experienced a sharp breakdown and is trading below both its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Supertrend indicator set at 7,3.

These technical indicators continue to reinforce a negative near-term outlook. Immediate support is placed at Rs 1,72,000 per kilogram, followed by Rs 1,65,800. These levels could become important if selling pressure continues.

On the upside, the earlier consolidation zone between Rs 1,91,500 and Rs 1,94,450 is expected to act as resistance during any recovery. A sustained move above this range would be needed to indicate a meaningful improvement in the technical picture.

For now, the technical bias remains bearish, with investors likely to monitor whether silver can hold its immediate support levels.

Crude Oil Nears Six-Month Highs on Iran and Gulf Risks

Crude oil remained one of the strongest-performing commodities during October as geopolitical risks increased. The expiring December Brent contract ended the month near $117.80 per barrel, while January Brent traded above $113. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) approached $104 per barrel.

Both major benchmarks gained more than 12% during October. The rise was supported by reports that the Trump administration was considering military options against Iran, raising concerns about possible disruptions to energy production and transportation across the Gulf.

Traders are particularly focused on the possibility of renewed military action following the November 3 US midterm elections. Regional contingency preparations have added to concerns about potential threats to Gulf production, Saudi energy infrastructure and important shipping routes.

The geopolitical risk premium has become a major driver of crude prices. With global inventories relatively tight, any disruption to production or exports could create additional upward pressure on the market.

Brent Could Cross $120 if Supply Disruptions Intensify

The near-term outlook for crude oil remains tilted towards higher prices because of uncertainty surrounding the Middle East. A confirmed disruption to Saudi production or exports could push Brent above $120 per barrel, according to the market assessment outlined in the report.

However, the direction of prices could change quickly if diplomatic efforts produce a credible breakthrough. A reduction in geopolitical tensions could remove a significant portion of the risk premium and potentially pull crude prices below $105 per barrel.

This creates a highly sensitive trading environment for energy markets. Investors will need to distinguish between actual supply disruptions and geopolitical concerns that have not yet affected physical oil flows.

Base Metals Face Pressure Despite Physical Supply Tightness

Base metals also weakened as declining risk appetite and uncertainty over AI-related investment affected expectations for industrial demand. Copper fell below $14,150 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange (LME), recording its first monthly decline since June.

The correction was partly moderated by signs of physical supply tightness. Elevated Chinese import premiums and continued shipments into US warehouses indicated that underlying supply conditions remained an important factor in the market.

Other base metals recorded mixed performances. Zinc led the gains, rising 2.6% to nearly $3,850 per tonne, supported by falling inventories outside China. Aluminium closed 0.9% higher near $3,070 per tonne, while lead remained broadly flat at around $1,910.

Copper’s next major technical level will be closely watched. Further weakness in technology-related investment expectations could leave the metal vulnerable to a decline below $14,000 per tonne.

US Midterm Elections Could Influence Energy Policy Expectations

The US midterm elections scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, will be another important event for commodity markets. Investors will assess the possible implications for fiscal policy, energy policy and Washington’s approach towards Iran.

Any change in the political balance in Congress could influence expectations about government spending and the direction of energy-related policies. The administration’s stance towards Iran is particularly important for crude oil because tensions involving the country could affect perceptions of supply security across the Gulf.

For metals, the elections may influence broader expectations about economic policy and financial-market sentiment. However, the immediate impact will depend on how political developments interact with economic data and central bank expectations.

US Payrolls Report and Technology Earnings in Focus

Friday’s US employment report will be the most important scheduled macroeconomic release of the coming week. The Federal Reserve’s emphasis on incoming data means that payroll growth and wage trends could influence expectations for the next interest-rate decision.

A strong employment report accompanied by firm wage growth could reinforce expectations of a December rate increase. Such an outcome may support the dollar and keep pressure on gold and silver by strengthening the case for tighter monetary policy.

A weaker-than-expected report could have the opposite effect. If employment conditions show signs of cooling, investors may reduce expectations of further tightening, potentially providing some relief to precious metals.

Remaining technology-company earnings will also be important. Investors will examine whether companies can justify their AI-related capital expenditure through future revenue and profitability. Further disappointment could trigger another round of selling in technology shares and broader asset classes.

PMI Data and Federal Reserve Speeches Add to the Event Calendar

Final Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings from major economies will provide additional information about business activity and the global growth outlook. These indicators will be particularly relevant for industrial metals, whose demand depends heavily on manufacturing and construction activity.

Investors will also monitor speeches from Federal Reserve officials for further guidance on inflation, employment and interest rates. Any indication of a more restrictive policy outlook could influence the dollar, Treasury yields and precious metals.

The combination of PMI readings, central bank commentary, US payroll data and technology earnings makes the coming week particularly important for commodity traders.

What Lies Ahead for Metals and Crude Oil?

Commodity markets are entering the new week with sharply different forces at work. Gold and silver remain under pressure from financial-market deleveraging, technology-sector weakness and expectations of potentially tighter US monetary policy. Copper and other industrial metals are facing uncertainty about future demand, although physical supply conditions continue to provide some support.

Crude oil, meanwhile, is being driven largely by geopolitical developments. The possibility of escalation involving Iran and disruptions to Gulf energy supplies has kept prices near six-month highs, while diplomatic progress could quickly reverse some of those gains.

The US employment report, technology earnings and November 3 midterm elections will be key events for investors. Their combined influence on interest-rate expectations, the dollar, industrial demand and geopolitical risk could determine whether metals extend their losses or stabilise, while crude oil remains sensitive to developments in the Middle East.