Cyclone Arnab 2026: Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Alert

India’s east coast is bracing for a possible cyclone next week as a low-pressure system over the southeast Bay of Bengal is expected to intensify and move towards the coastal regions of north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned that the system could develop into a cyclonic storm by October 26, raising concerns about heavy rainfall across several states in southern and eastern India.

According to the IMD’s special weather bulletin, the low-pressure area is likely to strengthen into a depression on Saturday before intensifying further into a deep depression by October 25. The system could subsequently develop into a cyclonic storm while remaining over the west-central Bay of Bengal.

If the system develops as forecast, it will be the first cyclone to form over the Bay of Bengal in 2026. It will be named Arnab, a name proposed by Bangladesh under the regional cyclone-naming system.

The developing weather system is expected to move west-northwestwards towards the eastern coastline. The IMD has indicated that the potential cyclonic storm could approach north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha during the two days following October 26.

Alongside the cyclone threat, the ongoing Northeast Monsoon is expected to bring continued heavy rainfall to several parts of southern peninsular India. Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Rayalaseema, Kerala and coastal Karnataka are likely to experience heavy rainfall until October 27. North Karnataka may also receive rainfall until October 25.

Low-Pressure Area Over Southeast Bay of Bengal Likely to Intensify

The IMD has been monitoring a low-pressure area that has formed over the southeast Bay of Bengal. Such systems can strengthen as they move over warm ocean waters and develop into more organised weather disturbances, although the eventual intensity and track depend on prevailing atmospheric and oceanic conditions.

In its special bulletin, the weather department outlined a possible progression from a low-pressure area to a depression, followed by a deep depression and then a cyclonic storm. The forecast suggests that the system could become progressively stronger over the coming days.

According to the IMD, the low-pressure area is expected to intensify into a depression on Saturday. It is then very likely to move west-northwestwards and strengthen into a deep depression by October 25.

The system is forecast to reach cyclonic-storm intensity on October 26 and remain over the west-central Bay of Bengal. Its subsequent movement could bring it closer to the coast between north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha.

The projected development has placed authorities and coastal communities in the region on alert for changing weather conditions. However, the system’s development into a cyclone remains conditional on the forecast, and its precise track and intensity may become clearer as the IMD issues further updates.

When Could Cyclone Arnab Form?

The potential cyclone is expected to develop in stages, with the IMD identifying October 26 as the likely date for the system to reach cyclonic-storm intensity.

• Current stage: A low-pressure area has formed over the southeast Bay of Bengal.
• Saturday: The system is likely to intensify into a depression.
• October 25: The depression is very likely to strengthen into a deep depression.
• October 26: The system is likely to develop into a cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal.
• After October 26: The storm could move towards the north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coast over the following two days.

If the system reaches the forecast intensity, it will be named Arnab. Bangladesh proposed the name as part of the regional naming arrangement for tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean.

The name would be assigned only if the system develops into a cyclonic storm. Until then, the weather disturbance remains under observation as it moves through the expected stages of intensification.

North Andhra Pradesh and South Odisha Coast Under Watch

The possible movement of the system towards north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha is a key concern in the latest IMD forecast. The department has indicated that the cyclonic storm, if it forms, would move towards this stretch of coastline during the two days after October 26.

The forecast does not establish a precise landfall point. Instead, it identifies a coastal zone that could be approached by the system as it travels west-northwestwards over the Bay of Bengal.

Andhra Pradesh and Odisha are located along India’s eastern coastline, where weather systems developing over the Bay of Bengal can bring heavy rainfall and potentially disruptive weather. The anticipated movement of the current system makes continued monitoring important for coastal districts in both states.

As the system develops, subsequent IMD bulletins are expected to provide further information about its strength, direction and potential effects. Changes in the system’s movement or intensity could influence the areas that experience the most significant rainfall.

For now, the main concern is the possibility of a strengthening storm approaching the coast while a separate seasonal weather pattern is already bringing rain to southern parts of the country.

Heavy Rainfall Forecast Across Southern India Until October 27

The developing low-pressure system is coinciding with an active Northeast Monsoon over southern peninsular India. The combination has prompted the IMD to forecast continued heavy rainfall across several states and regions over the coming days.

Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Rayalaseema, Kerala and coastal Karnataka are likely to receive heavy rainfall until October 27, according to the weather department.

The forecast covers a broad area of southern India, indicating that the effects of the prevailing weather conditions will extend beyond the coastline that could be approached by the potential cyclone.

Tamil Nadu and Coastal Andhra Pradesh

Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh are among the regions expected to experience heavy rainfall until October 27. Both areas could see continued wet weather as the Northeast Monsoon remains active and the low-pressure system develops over the Bay of Bengal.

The rainfall outlook is particularly significant for coastal Andhra Pradesh because the region is also part of the coastline identified in the IMD’s forecast for the potential cyclonic storm. However, the timing and intensity of rainfall may vary across individual districts as the system evolves.

Yanam and Rayalaseema

Yanam and Rayalaseema are also included in the heavy-rainfall forecast through October 27. Their inclusion highlights the possibility of substantial rainfall across different parts of the region, rather than only along the immediate coastline.

The IMD’s forecast indicates that these areas should expect continued wet weather during the period covered by the bulletin.

Kerala and Coastal Karnataka

Kerala and coastal Karnataka are likely to experience heavy rainfall until October 27. These regions are also affected by the active Northeast Monsoon and broader weather conditions over southern peninsular India.

The forecast points to a prolonged period of unsettled weather across parts of the western side of southern India, even as attention remains focused on the potential cyclone developing over the Bay of Bengal.

North Karnataka

North Karnataka is expected to receive rainfall until October 25, according to the IMD. The forecast period for this region is shorter than the period identified for Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Rayalaseema, Kerala and coastal Karnataka.

The difference in the forecast periods reflects the weather department’s current assessment of the expected rainfall pattern across the affected regions.

Very Heavy Rainfall Likely in Coastal Odisha and Northern Nicobar Islands

The IMD has forecast very heavy rainfall in coastal Odisha and the northern parts of the Nicobar Islands on October 26 and 27 as the system intensifies.

This forecast comes as the low-pressure area is expected to develop into a cyclonic storm and remain over the west-central Bay of Bengal. The system’s projected movement towards north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha could influence rainfall over parts of the eastern coastline.

Coastal Odisha is among the areas to watch closely as the system approaches its potential peak intensity. The forecast of very heavy rainfall on two consecutive days indicates that the region could experience a period of particularly intense precipitation.

The northern Nicobar Islands are also included in the outlook for very heavy rainfall. Their inclusion shows that the expected weather effects may extend across different parts of the Bay of Bengal region as the system develops.

The rainfall forecast does not, by itself, confirm where the system will make landfall or whether it will cross the coast. Those details depend on the cyclone’s eventual track and further meteorological assessments.

Active Northeast Monsoon Adds to the Weather Concerns

The possible cyclone is developing at a time when the Northeast Monsoon is active over southern peninsular India. This seasonal rainfall pattern is an important part of the current weather outlook, with several southern states expected to experience heavy rain through October 27.

The IMD has highlighted the overlap between the developing Bay of Bengal system and the active monsoon conditions. As a result, heavy rainfall is forecast across areas extending from Tamil Nadu and Kerala to coastal Andhra Pradesh and coastal Karnataka.

The broad geographical spread of the forecast means that the weather situation is not limited to the area potentially affected by the cyclone. Regions that are not directly in the projected path of the system may also experience significant rainfall because of the wider prevailing weather pattern.

The timing of the two weather developments is important. While the low-pressure system is expected to intensify between October 24 and October 26, rainfall is forecast to continue in several southern regions during the same period and beyond.

Coastal Odisha and the northern Nicobar Islands are expected to receive very heavy rainfall on October 26 and 27, adding to concerns about the possible impact of the developing system across the Bay of Bengal.

Why the Bay of Bengal Is Vulnerable to Cyclones

The Bay of Bengal is one of the two major water bodies that make up the North Indian Ocean cyclone region, the other being the Arabian Sea. Tropical cyclones can develop over both basins and affect coastal areas around the region.

India’s eastern and western coastlines are vulnerable to cyclones that form over the North Indian Ocean. The effects of these systems can include heavy rainfall and disruptive weather, depending on their intensity, movement and proximity to land.

On average, around four cyclones form over the North Indian Ocean each year, with approximately three developing over the Bay of Bengal. This makes the bay a particularly important region for cyclone monitoring and forecasting.

The potential formation of Cyclone Arnab would add to the region’s seasonal cyclone activity. However, the IMD’s current bulletin describes a system that is still developing, and the possibility of its becoming a cyclonic storm depends on how it evolves over the coming days.

Monitoring the system’s development is therefore essential for assessing whether the forecast intensification takes place and how its eventual track could affect India’s eastern coastline.

What to Watch for in the Coming Days

The next stages of the system’s development will be important in determining the scale of the weather threat. The IMD expects the low-pressure area to become a depression on Saturday and a deep depression by October 25 before potentially reaching cyclonic-storm intensity on October 26.

Its movement after October 26 will be particularly important for north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha, the coastal stretch identified in the forecast. Further updates will help clarify the system’s track and the areas likely to receive the heaviest rainfall.

Meanwhile, the forecast for heavy rainfall across Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Rayalaseema, Kerala and coastal Karnataka remains in place until October 27. North Karnataka is likely to receive rainfall until October 25, while coastal Odisha and the northern Nicobar Islands are forecast to experience very heavy rainfall on October 26 and 27.

The evolving weather conditions underline the importance of following official IMD bulletins for the latest information about rainfall and the possible cyclone. Forecasts may be refined as the system strengthens and its direction becomes clearer.

Conclusion

A potential cyclone over the Bay of Bengal has placed the coasts of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha under close watch, with the IMD forecasting that a low-pressure area could intensify into a cyclonic storm by October 26. If it develops as expected, the system will be named Arnab, following Bangladesh’s proposed name.

The storm is likely to move west-northwestwards towards north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha during the two days after October 26. At the same time, active Northeast Monsoon conditions are expected to bring heavy rainfall to Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Rayalaseema, Kerala and coastal Karnataka until October 27.

Coastal Odisha and the northern Nicobar Islands are also likely to receive very heavy rainfall on October 26 and 27. With the system still developing, its eventual intensity and precise path remain key factors to monitor as the weather situation evolves.